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Wednesday 11 January 2012

Report: Beautiful dead-wind/light offshore conditions this AM, but with nada surf.

Prediction: Today is a calm-before-the-storm scenario as weather conditions are going to degrade, and swell conditions are going to build, over the next 24 hours or so. Look for rain and building SE-ESE swell to develop overnight Wed-Thurs. As the low starts to lose its grip on the coast early/mid-morning Thursday, we should see winds come around to a more SW angle, BUT one thing has me a bit worried: the models recently have demonstrated a bias towards the West (typical of summer and springtime models, and perhaps a symptom/side-effect of the current La Nina weather pattern we have been experiencing), meaning a good number of recent post-event predictions of SW winds have actually brought SSW or even S winds, ruining shoulda-been-good sessions at SE- and ESE-facing breaks. While I want to say that East- and ESE-facing breaks will see good surf, we could be looking at more sideshore or side-offshore conditions. I strongly suggest you consult sources of local weather tomorrow AM to get real-time reports.

Extended Forecast: As the coastal low pushes offshore we should see the generation/maintenance of a back-door cold front-style mid-period swell with hard and cold offshore winds. Maybe some small leftovers for Saturday and most likely flat for Sunday. I will try to sneak in one more update before the weekend.

 

 

Saturday 07 January 2012

Report: Things have improved a bit this morning as compared to the recent run of flatness. A small South windswell is running in the waist- to stomach-high range and semi-organized with SW winds.

Prediction: Winds are currently SW but are predicted to go a bit more WSW as the day goes on, hopefully grooming conditions a bit, BUT with temperatures warming up and the day getting sunny, believe it or not we need to be concerned with the potential for a warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SSE.
Concerning the tides, right now is a good time if you can find somewhere minimizing the remnant side-wash from yesterday’s/last night’s South winds, and low-incoming tide this afternoon (low tide is around noon) could boost the size a bit but we do have to worry about potential South winds this afternoon (see above). Also keep in mind we are coming up on a full moon so water levels will be running on the extreme ends of the spectrum and we may be looking at too-shallow conditions midday.

Prediction: Smaller/trace background bump for Sunday through the early work-week with offshore winds dominating the models (one of those could-be-functionally-flat-or-could-be-rideable-at-standout-breaks, with offshore-winds–making-the-most-of-it scenarios). As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information. Potential new windswell for late work-week. Check often for back for updates.

 

 

Wednesday 04 January 2012

Report: Flat this AM with cold offshore winds.

Prediction: I really had my fingers crossed that hoping we would see something (anything!) from the tiny mid-period background bump suggested on the models, but alas it is not meant to be.

Extended Forecast: Abandon all hope ye who enter the second half of the work-week; we are looking at stiff offshore winds and a barely-there hard-angled short-period South bump on the models at best, which I highly doubt will amount for anything for us, surf-wise. Check back towards the end of the work-week for an update.

 

 

 

Monday 02 January 2012

Report: Small and clean South windswell surf conditions with NW winds this AM. It is barely there in the shin- to thigh-high range, but every once in a while I see a wave that is desirable on a longboard.

Prediction: The wave models are definitely not lighting up, but it is possible we may see a small mid-period ESE background bump Tuesday into early Wednesday with NW-NNW winds, so obviously more south-facing shorelines will maximize whatever small swell is out there.

Extended Forecast: Not a whole lot of promise through the remainder of the work-week, with stiff offshore winds and barely-there hard-angled short period S swell on the models at best. Check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

30 December 2011

Report: Good to hear that last Wednesdays swell panned out much bigger and better than originally anticipated, albeit with some pretty blustery offshore winds. I cannot give a report right now (cannot get eyes-on and am not going to cheat by using the surf cams), so you will have to go to other sources.

Prediction: It looks like some SSW to S winds today into the evening may push up a small, hard-angled South windswell. It looks like winds should go offshore SW-WSW for Saturday , grooming a short-period S-SSE windswell. This is one of those deals that the more East (vs. South) the swell has in it, the more it will show up on our beaches, so while it might not amount to much you might be able to find some decent rides at standout breaks. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Looking ahead, there is not a whole lot on the models for next week; perhaps a very small background SE swell on Monday (might not have much effect on our beaches) and perhaps some small-to-trace background E groundswell bump mid-week-ish. Check back Sunday or so for an update.

 

26 December 2011

NOTE: I will likely be off-the-grid for a few days, so you are largely on your own through New Years Day, give or take. However, I will update if and when I can between now and then.

Report: Flat surf and clean conditions with NW winds.

Prediction: Low pressure moving through on Tuesday should bring a quick-shot of strong sideshore/onshore S-SE winds, driving up a new windswell. Unfortunately, it looks like the front is likely to move-out late-night Tuesday or very early Wednesday and strong offshore NW-WNW winds are going to knock down the swell quite a bit by daylight on Wednesday. Under this scenario, an earlier-is-better strategy will maximize your chances, and you might want to consider shelter/wind blockage when selecting your break. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: It is a bit too long-range to make a definitive call, but the following period unfortunately looks like a Grinch-who-stole-the-Christmas-break swell scenario. I will likely be off the grid over break, but if I can check in before checking out I will update next week.

 

December 23 2011

Report: After a decent day of small-but-fun surf and beautiful weather yesterday followed by a quick shot of inclement weather overnight, we have a somewhat confused mixed windswell in the water this AM with NW-NNW winds. Nothing special, but if you missed yesterday, you might be able to salvage a session, particularly as the tide starts to fill back in mid-day into early afternoon and especially at more south-facing beaches.

Prediction: The models are devoid of any significant numbers for Saturday, but with NW-NNW winds it is possible a small longboard wave may eek through (as reference I am not banking on surfing but may check it once or twice on the low-incoming tide). Christmas Day does not hold much promise for swell, but with moderate+ winds somewhere between SW and SSW it is possible that a tiny Christmas miracle longboard wave might refract in.

Extended Forecast: It is a bit too long-range to make a definitive call, but the following week unfortunately looks like a Grinch-who-stole-the-Christmas-break-swell scenario. I will likely be off the grid over break, but if I can check in before checking out I will update next week.

 

Brent says:  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

 

 

Wednesday 21 December 2011

Report: Happy official first day of winter everyone, although with the water temps as they currently are, it still feels like late fall to me. The windy, rainy, and not brutally-cold conditions today, while not all that enticing surf-wise (knee- to thigh-high with sideshore S-SSE winds), also feel like a less-than-winter rain event.

Prediction: While the winds today will push up a bit of hard-angled South windswell, the front should start to make its move offshore late tonight, bringing hard offshore W-WNW winds in its wake, knocking the size down significantly by daybreak. Winds are predicted to back off a bit around mid-/late-morning, so it is possible that some energy may sneak its way in, particularly on the incoming tide (low is around 10AM). Another quick-shot of onshore wind and rain early Friday may renew/push up a new round of small short-period windswell, but right now the numbers look a bit iffy so I am not necessarily calling it a go yet.

Extended Forecast: I do not have the time to really dive into the data, so I am going to hold off on making a call for the weekend, but as of right now it looks like we are looking at some small conditions, but with offshore winds making the most of them. Check back Thursday or Friday for an update.

 

 

Thursday 15 December 2011

Report: A little bit of mid-period E-background swell, a bit of new S windswell, and a whole lotta S wind on top of it all.

Prediction: S winds today should push up a well-angled S windswell, but conditions will remain sloppy and largely unridable. Winds are supposed to come around hard offshore WNW-NW overnight, so unfortunately most of what swell is pushed up today will likely be significantly blown down by tomorrow AM. That said, the models are still calling for that underlying E background swell to stick around in the 1-2 foot range, so it is possible that we might see a little bit of combo in the water for early AM. You might want to look to standout breaks with wind-blockage to hedge your bets. Big tides are running as well, with a high around 11AM tomorrow morning.

Extended Forecast: Substantial swell development is not likely in the near future, but there is suggestion that the background mid-period swell will wax and wane through the weekend. With NW-WNW winds predicted, it is possible we may see some rideable sessions on the low-incoming tides. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather and reports for up-to-date information over the course of the next few days.

NOTE: After a long run serving the local surf community, No Flat Earth will be closing doors on December 21st. Sale items 50-70% off, surfboards $200 off. Posted store hours are 12pm -7pm weekdays, 10-8pm Saturday, 11-5pm Sunday.

 

 

Monday 12 December 2011

Report: Minor/minimal background swell with WNW winds today. Winds should stay pretty light but may come around to SW or even South.

Prediction: It looks like some mid-period ESE groundswell should build tomorrow, particularly during the second half of the day. NW-WNW winds early, possibly coming around more N-NNW in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast: Continued mid-period ESE background swell for Wednesday, but with a decidedly more North angle to the wind, making (relatively) South-facing beaches the better call. Winds may come around and up from the SE-ESE Wednesday afternoon/evening as a new disturbance approaches our region. The background swell should stretch into Thursday, but a quick shot of weak low pressure should bring unfavorable side-shore S-SSW winds. Potential offshore winds on Friday as the low clears out may salvage whatever leftovers/weak-S-windswell mix combo hangs around. More on that in the next mid-week update.

As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information over the course of the next few days.

 

Saturday 10 December 2011

Report: Minor/minimal background swell with NW winds today. Not rideable for the most part but it is possible standout breaks may hold a longboardable wave; low-incoming tide this afternoon (low is around 1:30 this afternoon) would be your best bet for that.

Prediction: More of the same for Sunday, ranging between flat and trace-background swell with NW winds. It is possible lighter offshore/side-offshore winds may let a little more energy reach the beach.

Extended Forecast: Similar conditions extending into Monday; somewhere between flat and minimal background swell with NW-WNW winds. The models are showing a potential new/renewed ESE background swell for Tuesday-Wednesday, which will be addressed in the next update.

Check back late weekend or early next week for a report update and weekend forecast.

 

Wednesday 07 December 2011

Report: This low pressure system sure is dragging its feet. It is now 11 AM and winds have only just shown an inkling of starting to turn SW from their earlier S-SSE angle. The mixed windswell/mid-period background swell is running in the knee- to waist-high range, but with bigger intermittent sets (the latter may build a bit and become more frequent by this afternoon).

Prediction: As this low starts to lose its grip on the coast and slip offshore, we should see the winds come around more SW-WSW this afternoon later today, which could bode well for the afternoon session, and then make a full swing to N-NNW later this afternoon or evening. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Complete passage of the front looks to occur later this evening/overnight, bringing with it whipping NW-WNW winds by daybreak. While the mid-period background swell is still lingering on the models for Thursday, I am quite worried about blown-down (reduced size) and blown-out (ragged, weak “held-back” waves), but it is possible a fun little wave may survive the night, particularly for a floaty or bigger board.

Check back tomorrow or Friday for a report update and weekend forecast.

 

 

Tuesday 06 December 2011

Report: Some mixed hard-angled S windswell/mid-period ESE background swell and S-SSW winds this AM. Sheltered breaks might hold a rideable wave, but for now most breaks have just a bit too much side-shore chop on it to be worth it, IMO.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to eventually lean a bit more SSW-SW; just how much of an effect this will have on rideability is TBD, but East-facing and protected breaks would be your best bet under this scenario.

Extended Forecast: Continuation of windswell/background swell for Wednesday, with winds starting off SW early and eventually switching to NW-NNW mid-morning/mid-day as the low pressure currently hanging over us begins to move offshore. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information. Significantly smaller leftovers for Thursday, but with favorable NW-WNW winds.

 

 

Friday 02 December 2011

Report: Small background conditions this AM with offshore winds.

Prediction: If the models are to believed, we are supposed to see some mid-period background-style E-ESE groundswell to fill in later this morning/early this afternoon, with offshore (W-WNW) winds possibly going a bit more side-shore NW-NNW towards the late afternoon/evening. As of 9AM, I am not seeing any signs of pulses, so keep your fingers crossed that it materializes. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and surfcams for timely reports.

Extended Forecast: It appears the mid-period E-ESE groundswell should stick around through the weekend. Unfortunately, winds look less-than-optimal, with a mixed bag of sideshore/onshore winds both days. That said, it looks like the winds may lay down a bit Saturday late morning/early afternoon before coming back up from the S-SSE on Sunday. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here late work-week or early weekend for an update.

 

 

Monday 28 November 2011

Report: No report today; I have been driving all around the state for work. Moderate S-SSW winds may start to push some weak windswell, but the real push will be tomorrow.

Prediction: Low pressure and SE winds on Tuesday should push up some windswell, but winds will likely remain sideshore/onshore through the day. Winds are predicted to come around SSW-SW overnight, bringing offshore/side-offshore winds at most NJ breaks for Wednesday. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information as the patterns mapped by the models are not well-resolved and therefore not too trustworthy from the current vantage point. Smaller leftovers groomed by NW-NWW winds are predicted for Thursday. As always, I recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information

Extended Forecast: Potential mid-period background set-up for Friday into the weekend (?). Check back mid/late work-week for updates.

 

 

Saturday 26 November 2011

Report: Small-scale background conditions today under SW-WSW winds. Longboardable at best unless standout spots are significantly amplifying it (did not have/could not justify the time to check such spots this AM).

Prediction: Much like yesterday, the size will probably suffer as the dropping tide starts to pull against what minimal swell we have. Conversely, we could see the size bump up a little as the tide turns around and starts to push back in mid-afternoon.

Extended Forecast: The models have changed quite a bit over the last few runs, and unfortunately not for the better. A new round of sideshore winds on Sunday should push up a new round of weak windswell for late weekend/early work-week, but it looks like the period is going to be pretty short and the angle is going to be pretty hard from the S or even the SSW; whether or not local breaks pick up this minor event is up for grabs. Sideshore/side-offshore winds early Monday AM may allow for an early session at protected breaks, but the mid-morning high-tide could also work against what little swell materializes. I highly recommend you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information as the patterns mapped by the models are not well-resolved and therefore not too trustworthy from the current vantage point.

At the moment, some sources suggest we could see winds go offshore sometime Tuesday, but I would suggest waiting until the models resolve a bit before you plan on it. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here late weekend or early work-week for an update.

 

Friday 25 November 2011

Report: Well-groomed but small-scale background swell today. Longboardable at best unless standout spots are significantly amplifying it (did not have/could not justify the time to check such spots this AM).

Prediction: The size will probably suffer as the dropping tide starts to pull against what minimal swell we have. Conversely, we could see the size bump up a little as the tide turns around and starts to push back in mid-afternoon.

Extended Forecast: Small-scale background swell may persist through Saturday, following the same tide-influenced effects as today. West winds early are predicted to come around more SW or possibly SSW in the afternoon. A new round of low-pressure and sideshore winds on Sunday should push up a new South windswell for early work-week, with potential offshore winds and swell for Monday. At the moment, the models suggest we could see continued swell generated on the backside of the front into Tuesday as well. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here late weekend or early work-week for an update.

 

Sunday 11/20/2011

Report: A small, short-period, hard-angled S windswell is running this AM with SW winds. Let’s call it knee- to waist-high with a few scattered stomach-high sets at standout breaks. Not pushing hard, so a Longboard or super-fat fish would be the call, but the angle is good and the weather is beautiful.

Prediction: Rainy weather and onshore winds return for the first few days of the work-week. Expect slowly-building and sloppy NE-ENE conditions for Monday and sideshore SE-SSE winds for Tuesday. Right now it looks like the front may push through and winds may go offshore sometime Wedneday, so we might be looking at rideable conditions sometime around then. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here for updates.

Extended Forecast: It is a bit far out there to predict reliably, but some mid-period E background swell may develop for the holiday break. Again, check back here for updates concerning this.

 

Wednesday 16 November 2011

Report: Onshore, sloppy, building windswell.

Prediction: Likely to stay this way through the remainder of the day, but there is a slight chance of winds going NW-NNW late-afternoon as the front begins to move through.

Extended Forecast: Unfortunately, with the winds going offshore late day/overnight and not a whole lot of fetch or period behind this swell, we are likely looking at smaller conditions for Thursday AM. Still, there is a chance of some mid-period windswell with side-off/offshore winds in the morning (N-NNW early, coming around more NW as the day goes on).

 

 

Monday 14 November 2011

Report: A hard-angled S windswell in the waist- to chest-high range is running this AM with SW-SSW winds. Despite the side-shore winds the waves are actually lining up quite nicely (high tide around 9AM today, so pick your break accordingly).

Prediction: Winds are likely to go more SSW-S this as the day heats up, so if you plan to surf consider targeting more East-facing and/or sheltered breaks. This minor swell may stretch into early Tuesday, but with winds going hard SW-WSW overnight we might be looking at an offshore-wind-knock-down situation. Still, I have a sneaky suspicion we may see rideable surf tomorrow AM (again, consider the approximately 10 AM high tide).

Extended Forecast: Sideshore S-SSE winds look to return for Thursday, pushing up a new bit of windswell, but right now it looks like we are seeing an overnight offshore/sideshore (N) wind blow-out situation for Thursday. Check back mid-week for an update.

 

Thursday 10 November 2011

Report: Some ESE swell still out there, not terribly organized (yet) due to the wind taking its time to ramp up. Looking in the stomach- to shoulder-high range, but tough to say for sure since the fog is so thick.

Prediction: Sorry for the lack of detail in my last few forecasts, I have just been so busy I have had not had time to explain the whys. TS Sean has been mulling about offshore, which is the reason for the mid-period groundswell we have been seeing over the past few days. Unfortunately, he is not too organized or powerful, hence the reason the waves have been pulsing and waning. Expect this pattern to continue though Friday, with swell-grooming NNW-NW winds picking up today and ramping up even more from the NW-WNW winds tomorrow. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags and surfcams.

Extended Forecast: TS Sean will be moving off to the NE by the weekend, leaving small E-groundswell leftovers behind for early weekend, with hard W-WSW winds on Saturday and S-SSW winds on Sunday. Possible generation of new S windswell for early next week; check back soon for an update.

 

 

Wednesday 9 November 2011

Update: The update is that there is no update; the prediction from November 7th stands as-is. Just did not want you to think I left ya hangin'.

 

 

Monday 7 November 2011

Report: Waves are running in the thigh- to waist-high range this AM. Winds are light offshore but conditions are sort of so-so as the waves are not really well-groomed or lining up.

Forecast: As things heat up today, we will likely see a wind-shift to the SE. It looks like we should see the slow-build of a mid-period ESE swell starting sometime Tuesday, with winds looking light offshore in the early AM and becoming light and variable mid morning or early afternoon. It looks like onshore (SE-ESE) winds come into play on Wednesday, but they might stay down enough to allow for decent conditions as the swell continues to build Wednesday through mid-Thursday. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags and surfcams.

Extended Forecast: It currently looks like winds may go N-NNW to NW for Thursday-Friday as the swell peaks and then begins to wind down. More details to come as they develop; check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

Friday 28 October 2011

Report: High pressure and decent weather has come into play for today, bringing with it N-NNE winds and a small bumpy NE windswell.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to back down a bit later today, so it is possible we might see a relatively cleaner version of the conditions we are seeing this AM.

Unfortunately, there has been a downgrade to yesterday’s favorable outlook concerning the weekend swell: A new coastal low develops for Saturday, brining rain and swell-producing NE winds. As the front clears out, winds currently look to go hard NW-NNW late Saturday night or early (pre-dawn) Sunday morning, which should quickly clean up but also knock-down the ENE windswell overnight, so keep your fingers crossed that some swell holds in there for the early Sunday session, with relatively South-facing beaches likely holding the cleanest conditions. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags and surfcams.

Extended Forecast: Some onshore winds early next week may drive up some mid-week windswell; check back often for updates.

 

 

Thursday 27 October 2011

Report: Inclement weather but very little swell happening today; shin- to maybe knee-high at best. As an interesting aside, we are at a Perigean spring tide (aka King Tide), so tides are reaching their extremes at both ends of the cycle (+6.1 feet over mean low water at 8AM today; some low-lying roads were pretty flooded out).

Prediction: High pressure and decent weather comes into play for Friday before a new coastal low develops for Saturday, brining rain and swell-producing NE winds. Winds currently look to go NW on Sunday, cleaning up a new ENE windswell, especially at more South-facing beaches. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags and surfcams.

Extended Forecast: Some onshore winds early next week may drive up some mid-week windswell; check back often for updates.

 

 

Wednesday 19 October 2011

Report: Stormy weather, onshore winds, and building swell.

Prediction: Invest 95 (basically a natal Tropical Depression that has not made TD status) is currently having its way with our area, bringing with it lots of rain and swell-producing onshore winds. As the storm moves off to the NNE overnight, look for a wind-shift with strong winds in its wake on Thursday. Right now, winds look like they will be somewhere between S-SSW and SW; lets hope it leans more SW so we get some sort of cleanup. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags and surfcams.

Extended Forecast: Decent chance of fun leftovers hanging in there for early Friday, with strong offshore (SW-WSW) winds. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information. Small leftovers/background bump and continued offshore winds possible for the weekend; check back often for updates.

 

 

Tuesday 18 October 2011

Report: Sorry, no report today; I have been working on a boat for the last two days, so no eyes-on reports from me.

Prediction: Invest 95 (basically a natal Tropical Depression that has not made TD status) has formed in the Gulf Of Mexico and is predicted to exit by way of Florida and make its way quickly up the East Coast over the next 24 hours, bringing with it lots of rain and swell-producing onshore winds. As high pressure fills in behind Invest 95, look for strong offshore winds (currently looking like SW-WSW) to groom a respectable SE swell on Thursday. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

Extended Forecast: Some leftovers look to hang in there for Friday, with continued offshore winds. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

 

Thursday 13 October 2011

Report: Building windswell and ENE winds early, predicted to go lighter ESE this afternoon.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to ramp-up again from the S-SSE tonight through Friday, with the possibility of going offshore late in the day Friday, hopefully before dark. If so, we should be in business for some fun surf, but I fear a too-little-too-late scenario. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

Extended Forecast: High pressure bringing hard offshore winds are predicted for overnight Friday-Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Chance for some small windswell leftovers early Saturday (whatever does not get blown-out overnight) and some small mid-period background bump (at best) might hold through the weekend.

NOTE: There is some talk of an impromptu AB3-style event in LBI this Saturday. I posted a link in the Surf News section to the thread loosely organizing it on the Surfermag.com Bulletin Board

 

 

Saturday 08 October 2011

Report: A beautiful day with offshore winds, but the anticipated minor background swell is bordering on the minimal/trace description. Standout breaks may see a longboardable wave at low-incoming, (might be a good day to throw a wetsuit on a kid and teach him or her to surf) but that is probably about it for today.

Prediction: Sunday is looking to be a repeat of today with near-flatness but beautiful weather. The flatness will likely extend into Monday as well.

Extended Forecast: Onshore winds look to come into play mid-week, driving a new windswell with a possible cleanup late-week. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

 

Wednesday 05 October 2011

Report: A small pulse of ESE groundswell from TS Philippe this AM with a brisk NW wind. Definitely on the small side in the thigh- to stomach-high range and bottomed out with the low tide (approx 9AM), but standout breaks, particularly at South-facing coastlines, may hold a longboardable or small-wave-board wave on the low-incoming tide.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to continue blowing hard and come around more N-NNW through the rest of the day, so I would expect this small swell to get blown out and snuffed out by the high early-afternoon high tide.

Extended Forecast: TS Philippe is primed to make an exit off to the NE and outside our swell-window. Pleasant weather but minimal surf this afternoon through Thursday, with a possible up-tick in small background swell for Friday into Saturday with variable winds. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

 

 

Tuesday 04 October 2011

Report: Small leftovers this AM with a brisk offshore wind. Definitely on the small side and bottomed out with the low tide (approx 8AM), but standout breaks are holding a longboardable or small-wave-board wave.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to continue offshore through most of the day, so I would suspect low-incoming tide to continue to hold a rideable wave, but I would expect this small swell to get snuffed out by the high early-afternoon high tide.

Extended Forecast: TS Philippe is well-offshore but slowly moving Westward; despite experiencing a bit of shear he may send a pulse of small but long-period swell towards us overnight Tuesday-Wednesday before either breaking up or making an exit off to the NE. Wednesday currently looks to have hard NW-NNW winds, so it is possible more S-facing beaches might be worth a surf. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

 

Monday 03 October 2011

Report: What once was hurricane Ophelia has gone post-tropical and exited our swell window by way of Newfoundland. Some remnant ESE groundswell from Ophelia is still hitting our shores this AM. Most waves are waist to chest high with inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds are light offshore this AM and conditions are clean but not groomed, per se. Most breaks I checked are struggling with the long period and AM low tide, but standout spots are holding both waves and crowds.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to be light and variable through most of the day, so I would suspect as we get more water on the bars we might see waves and breaks open up a bit more. Smaller mid-period E groundswell leftovers may hang around into early Tuesday with stiff offshore NW winds.

Extended Forecast: TS Philippe is well-offshore but slowly moving Westward; despite experiencing a bit of shear he may send a pulse of small but long-period swell towards us overnight Tuesday-Wednesday before either breaking up or making an exit off to the NE. Wednesday currently looks to have hard NW-NNW winds, so it is possible more S-facing beaches might be worth a surf. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back often for updates.

 

Friday 30 September 2011

Report: We have some leftover S windswell from yesterday’s late-day cleanup. Winds are more SSW this AM, so we are looking at well-angled but only semi-clean conditions.

Prediction: The tide is on its way up (high tide is around 10AM), so I suspect that most spots will get swamped out by the excess water for the late-am session. Perhaps when the tide begins to drop back out we will see improving conditions if the swell lasts and the winds do not pull around to the S-SSE. Potential for winds to go back offshore shortly before dark, so there is a potential for a repeat of something similar to last night’s hit-and-run session. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Hurricane Ophelia took a beating earlier this week but has been resurrected and is predicted to track Northward through our swell window over the weekend. Look for ESE groundswell to develop during the latter half of Sunday into Monday. Right now the winds are looking to start off S-SSE come around to a favorable SW-WSW for Sunday and then pull more NW-WNW for Monday. Potential for smaller E-ENE leftovers into Tuesday. I will most likely be unable to post an update over the weekend, so you are on your own regarding reports and timely wind forecasts (again, I suggest you monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information).

 

 

 

Tuesday 27 September 2011

Report: After a day of fun combo wind/groundswell (particularly at more south-facing beaches) yesterday, we should be seeing continued but smaller groundswell from Ophelia, but it is difficult to tell due to all the fog.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to remain moderate ESE through the day, so low-incoming this afternoon (low tide is around 2PM) holds the most promise for a decent session, or pick your high-tide break (big tide running this AM) wisely if you want to get in earlier.

Extended Forecast: The remnants of Ophelia are currently stationary off the Leeward Islands but have lost a bit of organization, so look for the mid-period groundswell we have been seeing to drop off markedly in the second half of the week. Winds are predicted to hop up, first from the ESE and the come around SSE, a bit for Wednesday-Thursday as a new font pushes through. As it clears, currently predicted by Thursday afternoon/evening, winds should come around offshore and groom whatever groundswell leftover/new windswell is generated, but I cannot currently get a read clear enough to make a call. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here late Wednesday or early Thursday for and update.

Way-Out Outlook: Re-strengthening of Ophelia and a move northward is possible towards the end of the week/early weekend, which could also result in a secondary pulse of swell late weekend/early next week (I am going on gut-impression, so this call is very much TBD). TS Philippe is in open waters off the Verde Islands and heading West; time will tell what effect he will have on us; I will keep you updated.

 

 

Saturday 24 September 2011

Report: Disappointingly minimal baseline swell conditions with light and variable winds this AM. Pretty forgettable out there, but standout breaks might holding something rideable on a longboard, particularly as the tide drains through the morning (low is around 10:13AM).

Prediction: A new push of onshore/sideshore mix of winds may push up a little bit more windswell for Sunday. Not set in stone, but hopefully an improvement to feed the wave-starved; low-incoming tide around mid-day would again probably be your best bet. Winds are currently predicted to be light/moderate and variable through the weekend, but you should monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: The details regarding TS Ophelia’s track is yet to be determined, but she looks like she may be heading in the general direction of our swell window and start pushing some small groundswell early next work-week. At this moment I suspect Ophelia might yield a waxing and waning background groundswell similar that of Maria last week; those details will be addressed during my next update on the backside of the weekend.

 

 

Friday 23 September 2011

Report: Small-scale SE background swell and light and variable winds this AM. Pretty forgettable out there, but standout breaks might be holding something rideable on a longboard.

Prediction: Some weather coming through this evening/overnight might push up a new bit of windswell for Saturday AM. Winds are looking light (and variable) enough in the morning that it might be worth an early check. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: A new push of onshore/sideshore mix of winds should sustain/build windswell for Sunday. The details regarding TS Ophelia’s track is yet to be determined, but she looks like she may be heading in the general direction of our swell window and start pushing some small groundswell early next work-week. At this moment I suspect Ophelia might yield a waxing and waning background groundswell similar that of Maria last week; those details will be addressed during my next update on the backside of the weekend.

 

 

Thursday 22 September 2011

Report: Small-scale SE background swell and light offshore winds this AM have given way to light onshore/sideshore SE winds by mid-morning. Not looking as groomed as earlier, but I would suspect standout breaks might be holding something rideable on a longboard or fatty fish.

Prediction: A big 3:15PM high-tide might swamp-out the mid-day session, but rideability might improve as the tide backs down a bit late in the day. Small-scale short-period background swell and variable onshore/sideshore winds for the remainder of the work-week into early weekend. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Increasing SE windswell and an underlying ESE background groundswell from TS Ophelia might yield a rideable session later in the weekend, albeit most likely with onshore winds. Ophelia’s track is yet to be determined, but she looks like she may be heading in the general direction of our swell window; hopefully better details will develop by my next update.

 

Monday 19 September 2011

Report: Plenty of swell, but plenty of onshore wind as well. Lets call it chest- to shoulder-high plus ENE windswell, but too choppy and sloppy to be intriguing.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to blow pretty hard through the day and then turn more SE-ESE late afternoon and back down a bit, but I suspect we will likely not see much improvement in rideability today. Winds are predicted to go S-SSE overnight and eventually come around from the SW-SSW mid/late AM Tuesday, which should clean conditions up at East-facing shores and protected breaks. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Winds are predicted to go light and variable for the first half of Wednesday, so we might see some rideable leftover windswell before winds come up from the S-SSE in the afternoon. The second half of the week is looking less promising, but some small background mid-period ESE mixed up with variable winds may create windows of opportunity. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here mid-week for an update.

 

Monday 12 September 2011

Report: Today we see a relatively small and weak windswell with offshore SW-WSW winds and an 8AM high tide. Looking on the weak side, but standout spots will likely hold a decent wave.

Prediction: Later today we could see SE groundswell forerunners from the outer winds of TS Maria, currently mulling around down off Puerto Rico. While not a strong organized storm, she has been relatively stationary long enough to send some small-scale groundswell our way. If the winds manage to hold their predicted SW-WSW angle, this afternoon into the evening could hold a fun little wave, but as usual the concern is that the warm, sunny weather could also cause a wind-shift to the S-SSE as the day goes on.

Extended Forecast: While significant strengthening of Maria is unlikely (she has to contend with a lot of upper-level wind shear), her predicted track is favorable to sustain some form of groundswell for us through the remainder of the week as she moves N-NNE between Bermuda and the east coast of the US. Winds are also predicted to hold a favorable SW-WSW angle through Wednesday. Winds look to swing anywhere from the NNW to the NNE Thursday through Friday as Maria passes offshore of us (we will likely catch some of the peripheral winds off her Western margin as she clashes with a guiding ridge of high pressure lined up generally over the coast). Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here for updates.

 

Brent's note: Thanks for Supporting the site. We got a good surge of clicks this past Sunday. Please keep on clicking! Please support this site by clicking on the top banner ads. It cost you nothing but helps us with the costs of running this site. Thanks in advance.

 

 

Friday 09 September 2011

Report: Plenty of swell courtesy of Katia, but local winds are screeeeeewing us. It looks like it got too sunny, too hot, and pulled the winds sideshore S-SSE.

Prediction: Right now, all we can do is hold tight and hope it gets overcast this afternoon, or at least cools down enough to cause the wind-line to break down and allow the winds to come back around to their originally-predicted SW-WSW.

Extended Forecast: Winds are currently forecasted to hold offshore for the early hours of Saturday, but by then much of the swell is predicted to fade due to Katia exiting our swell window via an ENE bee-line out to sea. Disappointing to experience such a hit-and-run swell, but hopefully a little bit of something will remain for the early session. Onshore wind is again predicted to rear its ugly head late Saturday morning or early afternoon through the remainder of the weekend, generating a new round of windswell for early next work-week. Another new ESE groundswell is potentially on the map for early/mid week as well if TS Maria gets her act together and follows a favorable track.

NOTE: Need a board for these tropical swells? Check out the Bonzer I have posted in the Surf News section.

 

Thursday 08 September 2011

Report: Plenty of swell churning our way from Hurrincane Katia, but also lots of onshore-sideshore winds from the remnants of TS Lee passing through.

Prediction: It appears that relief from the wind may be in sight on Friday; winds are predicted to start off onshore but come around from the WSW-SW in the afternoon. Definitely monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date information regarding this shift.

Extended Forecast: Winds are currently forecasted to hold offshore for the early half of Saturday, but by then much of the swell is predicted to fade due to Katia exiting our swell window via an ENE bee-line out to sea. Disappointing to experience such a hit-and-run swell, but hopefully something will remain for the early session. Onshore wind is again predicted to rear its ugly head Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend, generating a new round of windswell for early next work-week. Another new ESE groundswell is potentially on the map for early/mid week as well if TS Maria gets her act together and follows a favorable track.

NOTE: Need a board for these tropical swells? Check out the Bonzer I have posted in the Surf News section.

 

Tuesday 6 September 2011

Report: Combo windswell/groundswell with onshore winds and washy conditions.

Prediction: An increase in SE groundswell is expected as Hurricane Katia moves into our swell window over the next few days, but for now winds are looking like an onshore/sideshore mess for the much of the work-week as well. Monitor sources of local weather for development of details.

Extended Forecast: Look for a peak in groundswell late Thursday into early Friday as Hurricane Katia approaches from the SE and then hooks out to sea over the weekend. Swell-wise this approach is a dream-scenario, but it looks like local winds are going to screw it up for us for much of the week. Potential cleanup for late-week or early weekend. Check back here for updates.

 

 

Tuesday 30 August 2011

This is going to be quick and a bit lower-resolution than my usual reports and forecasts as I am still scrambling to inventory equipment and clean up (relatively minor) damage at work and home after the storm.

Report: Some ESE background swell is still lingering in the chest+ range, but winds are currently sideshore NNE and could come around more E or even SE this afternoon as the day heats up.

Prediction: A little of this swell is predicted to linger into Wednesday, with light NW-NNW winds predicted early, giving way to moderate onshores as the day goes on.

Extended Forecast: An onshore flow is predicted to develop for Thursday-Friday, which could push up a bit of new windswell on top of whatever background stuff lingers into the latter half of the week.

Tropical Forecast: While TS Jose has fizzled out, TS Katia is rapidly developing out in the Atlantic and predicted to reach Cat 3 status before entering our swell window. If all goes according to current models, we should start to see some long-period groundswell from her by early next week, and hopefully stay offshore because she might become a nasty storm. Stay tuned for updates.

 

 

Wednesday 24 August 2011

Report: Minimal conditions and light winds this AM. Weak and not looking that rideable.

Prediciton: Increasing S-SSE winds predicted to come as the day goes on. Continued hard S-SSW sideshore winds predicted through Thursday. And now to address the elephant in the room: the projected track of Irene has obviously changed, with her now clipping the Outer Banks and making her way up past or over us as a Category 2 (assuming she gets downgraded from a Cat 3 after her brief encounter with the Carolinas) by Sunday. What this means is that we may see the beginnings of a SE groundswell generated by her outer margins on Friday with a mixed bag of light winds before we have to batten down the hatches by Saturday afternoon/evening. After that things go bad with heavy onshore winds and coastal flooding overnight Saturday-Sunday.

Extended Forecast: Irene is predicted to gain traction and move quickly through, turning winds screaming offshore by Sunday afternoon, which will most knock down the swell extremely quickly. In fact, depending on the actual track, due to the proximity of the eye so close to our shores, we may see Hurricane-force offshore winds, so take that into consideration if you are tempted to make a go of it (which is not advised based on the current projected wind-speeds).

More details regarding the track of Irene and the swell conditions left in the aftermath of the storm in subsequent updates.

 

Monday 22 August 2011

Report: A short-period windswell in the water this AM; already suffering a bit from the rising tide, but this might be your best bet as more water will likely shift the break near/onto the shore, but hey, it is a lot more than we have had lately, so you might want to give it a go at select higher-tide breaks.

Prediction: What little swell we have will likely not break through the early-afternoon high tide, but perhaps as the tide drains a bit towards evening we might see something marginally rideable materialize before dark.

Extended Forecast: Possible pulse of small background groundswell mid-week (Wed-Thurs) with winds anywhere from S to SSW to possibly even SW. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here in the event I am able to squeeze-in an update (next two days are quite busy for me, real-job-wise).

Extended-Extended Forecast: Of course Hurricane Irene is the latest significant storm that may affect us, at least swell-wise. It currently appears that she will likely make landfall this weekend somewhere in the FL-GA-SC area as a Category 2 or 3 and follow the typical gain-traction-and-eject-off-the-Carolinas pattern. More details concerning what that means to us will be addressed in subsequent updates.

 

Tuesday 16 August 2011

Report: Small South swell leftovers this AM and offshore NW-NNW winds. Mid-tide rising is snuffing it locally, but standout breaks might be holding something worthwhile.

Prediction: TS Gert is cleared Bermuda and is moving off to the NE. While definitely not a bona fide swell-maker, we might see some small mid-period E-ESE groundswell on our shores by mid-morning tomorrow (Wednesday) before waning overnight Wed-Thursday (the source is moving rapidly away from us, afterall) . Winds are looking like a mixed bag of light N-NNW winds early, coming around to moderate S-SSE in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast: Possible small remnant groundswell early Thursday AM, but with winds up from the S-SSW it could be semi-clean to sideshore, depending on just how much the wind tilts. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information. S-SSW winds Thursday-Friday could push up some new steep-angled South windswell for late week. Check back regularly for updates as details develop.

 

Friday 12 August 2011

Report: After a few days of fun-ish groundswell (your results may have varied as it was very tide- and location-dependent) from the remnants of the low pressure system that once was Emily, we are back to pretty minimal conditions. Today is pretty close to flat (we will just call it shin- to knee-high), but the wave period is enough to suggest a little something could happen during low-incoming, especially since it is clean with light variable (mostly offshore) winds. With a low tide around 1PM, incoming might still hold something sorta-rideable on a big board.

Prediction: First half of the weekend is looking less than exciting, with minimal swell and high AM tides. Increasting S-SSW winds late Saturday though Sunday may push up a steep South windswell but surface conditions will likely remain sideshore through the weekend.

Extended Forecast: Some T-stormy conditions, bringing potential offshore winds, on Monday might groom out what little windswell we get from the weekend blow. If/when it does turn you may need to respond quickly as the short-period swell may get knocked down pretty quickly. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind predictions and respond accordingly; check back early work-week for the next update.

NOTE: Epic-shirts is sponsoring a party at Harrison's Surf Club tonight, check it out if around, should be a good time. Check the Surf News link, above-right, for more info.

 

 

 

Friday 05 August 2011

Report: SE-SSE winds and East windswell in the waist- to chest-high range today. Sustained onshore winds today might bump it up a bit more in size as the day goes on, with winds dropping off a bit towards evening, so the potential for a decent session is there.

Prediction: Combo windswell/background mid-period swell on the charts for Friday through the weekend. Increasing South winds on Saturday afternoon may push up the windswell component a bit for Sunday. Currently, T-stormy conditions are looking likely for Sunday, which means a possible window of offshore winds, but keep your senses tuned for potentially dangerous conditions.

Extended Forecast: TS Emily has broken up over eastern Cuba, The remnant system is still predicted to track towards the N-NNE, working its way over the Bahamas and eventually moving Eastward off of the Carolinas late weekend/early next work-week. Some minor reorganization and strengthening is possible as these remnants move into warm Atlantic waters, but by then it could be too little too late as it/she moves out of our swell window. What this means for us is that we will have to keep our hopes high and fingers crossed for a quick-shot of small groundswell off the peripheral winds of the system late Sunday into early Monday before quickly fading. Of course, the details and timing of all this are subject to change with track, timing, and intensification. Check back over the next few days for updates (monitor the Surf News section, above right, for hot-off-the-presses info in case there is a delay between submission and posting). Two more tropical waves are behind this one, so more info to come.

 

Thursday 04 August 2011

Report: East winds and East windswell in the waist-high range today. Disorganized and not all that enticing despite the chance to get wet after our recent flat-spell. Sustained onshore winds today might bump it up a bit more in size as the day goes on, which could increase its allure, but don’t expect bona fide clean conditions if you do make a go of it.

Prediction: Combo wndswell/background mid-period swell on the charts for Friday though the weekend. Winds are currently looking like a mixed bag of onshore/side shore with variable intensity, so I would venture to say you could have opportunity to surf over the course of the next few days (particularly late Friday or early Saturday); monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and use your best judgment based on that info.

Extended Forecast: TS Emily is currently making her way West in the Caribbean Sea, south of Haiti. Currently predicted to make a turn towards the NW, she will likely next have her sights on Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas before getting grabbed by upper-level winds and tracking Northward off the Southern (US) Atlantic coast, eventually ejecting off of the Carolinas late weekend or early next work-week. Some minor strengthening and a possible upgrade to Cat 1 status is anticipated as she frees herself from the drag of moving over/near land and makes her way into warm Atlantic waters as well. What this means for us is that we will have to wait a bit until she re-enters our swell window from the south before throwing a quick-shot of groundswell at us early/mid next work-week before moving too far out to sea. Of course, the details and timing of all this are subject to change with track, timing, and intensification. Check back over the next few days for updates (monitor the Surf News section, above right, for hot-off-the-presses info in case there is a delay between submission and posting).

 

Tuesday 26 July 2011

Report: Today we have a little bit of combo SE-ENE windswell in the water courtesy of yesterday’s period of onshore winds. Winds are currently going through a transitional sideshore-offshore mix, but are predicted to settle into a more offshore pattern mid/late AM, which should groom the surf a bit more than its current semi-organized state.

Prediction: There might be a short period of decent surf as the tide drains (low is around 10:30) and before the wind (likely) shifts to the SE as the day warms up and destabilizes the local offshore flow.

Extended Forecast: The outlook is pretty bleak for the next few days. While quick shots of ephemeral local windswell and short windows of trace background swell getting a boost from incoming tides cannot be ruled out, it will likely be on the flat-to-minimal end of the spectrum for a bit.

NOTE: Local surf photographer Kyle Gronostajski is presenting a slideshow at Nardi’s Tavern and Grille(11801 Long Beach Blvd in LBI) at 10:00PM Wednesday night. This is a Jetty-sponsored event. Good time with good food and beer specials! Check the Surf News section for more information.

 

Thursday 21 July 2011

Report: A little more action today than that of days of recent past. A small combo S-SE swell (a little windswell plus possibly some weak pulses from a relatively-weak TS Bret) in the knee- to waist-high range.

Prediction: Early-day offshore winds will likely yield to SSE seabreeze this afternoon as the day heats up. I would expect a similar pattern for Friday, perhaps a bit bigger if Bret cooperates and does not weaken/move off too quickly.

Extended Forecast: Bret is predicted to dissipate and move well off the coast by the weekend, so expect conditions to remain pretty mellow through the weekend with only tiny, localized windswell conditions at best. Currently eying potential development of a new E windswell early next work-week. As always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date information and keep checking back here for updates.

 

Monday 18 June 2011

Report: A bit more motion in the ocean than the last few mornings, thanks to a slight increase in background swell (still not much) and a lower tide. Still, it is already struggling with the rising tide, so only standout breaks that handle extra water seem to hold any promise of semi-rideability.

Prediction: As has been the case over the course of the last few days, the rising tide will likely snuff out the already-struggling surf and winds will likely come onshore as the day heats up. Winds have been going back offshore late-evenings, so if they could sync up with the low-incoming tide at approximately 4:30PM, we might see something happen late-day.

Extended Forecast: The tropical low down by Bermuda has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret, which should start to track NNE-NE in the next few days. As he moves into our swell window mid/late week, we could start to see some small-but-long-period groundswell, but do not expect this inaugural tropical swell to be a banger as significant intensification is not yet expected. Local winds are currently looking like a mixed bag, so monitor sources of local weather for up to date information and keep checking back here for updates.

 

Friday 15 July 2011

Report: Very small wind/background bump with a high tide and offshore winds this AM. I cannot see it breaking in a rideable manner anywhere until we some of this high-water drains.

Prediction: Perhaps a small ridable bump on a LB later this afternoon on the low-incoming tide, but that might be a bit optimistic. I also suspect the winds may do a warm-weather-windshift to the SE as the day warms.

Extended Forecast: As has been the case the last few weekends, a minor waxing-and-waning mid-period background swell is on the models for this Saturday-Sunday, with predominantly offshore winds predicted as well. As always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and beware warm-weather-windshifts as things heat up.

 

 

Monday 11 July 2011

Report: Trace background/leftover swell this morning with offshore winds. You might be able to find something to move you along on a big/fat board at standout breaks, but otherwise nothing worth getting excited over.

Prediction: Winds will most likely shift to the SE as today warms up. Overnight S-SSW winds might push up a new minor windswell bump for Tuesday AM, with SW-WSW winds predicted to come around by dawn. A new small-but-long-period background SE groundswell is predicted to materialize Tuesday-Wednesday as well, so it is possible that we may see a building trend over that period (with NW-NNW winds predicted for Wednesday, to boot).

Extended Forecast: Looks like some small baseline ESE background groundswell might hang around through the end of the work-week with a mixed bag of winds; monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back here for updates.

 

 

Friday 1 July 2011

Report: Trace background swell and offshore winds this AM. Right now the tide is too high for it to be much more than shorebreak, but perhaps as the tide begins to ebb you might be able to ride it on a big board (something that can build momentum and cruise into it from the outside). I would recommend waiting for low-incoming early this afternoon, but there is also a good chance that we will see a warm-weather-induced south wind-shift.

Prediction: A small bump-up in background swell is possible later this afternoon into early Saturday. I would recommend catching it early tomorrow, but also keep in mind the high tide at approximately 9AM could swamp it out; use your local knowledge to select a break that handles the small-wave and high-water combo.

Extended Forecast: Winds for the holiday weekend into Monday look to be a mix of SW to S-SSW, which could both intermittently drive-up and clean-up a small hard-angled S-SSW windswell. Combine that with a small-but-long-period SE background swell and we should see windows of small-but-fun waves and favorable winds. As usual, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date information regarding the winds, use your local knowledge to best take advantage of whatever waves are thrown our way, and exhibit patience with what is the, or one of the, seasonal peaks in visitors to our beaches and breaks.

 

Friday 24 June 2011

Report: A small combo SSE and E swell in the water this AM with light onshore winds and pretty clean conditions. The wave quality itself is anywhere between borderline and fairly rideable, heavily dependent on location (I saw both extremes during my multiple-location pre-work check this AM).

Prediction: Onshore winds will likely come up as the day goes on/heats up, but I would expect rideable (summer-style) conditions may persist through the day at standout breaks as it has the last few days. Late-day T-storm passage may bring an offshore SW tilt to the winds.

Extended Forecast: Smaller-scale background South swell for much of the weekend with predominantly offshore winds predicted (but, as always, beware warm-weather-induced S windshifts). Not the most promising outlook, but I think if one arrives at the beach during a low-incoming tide with the correct board and lowish/reasonable expectations a fun time could be had. Potential South-swell build for mid-week; check back early next work-week for an update.

 

Monday 20 June 2011

Report: Small-scale background bump with light and variable winds (was a bit stronger ESE this AM but seems to have come around more SE-SSE and backed off a bit by mid-day).

Prediction: Similar pattern for the remainder of the day. Standout breaks might see a rideable (longboard or fatty fish) wave on the late-day incoming tide

Extended Forecast: Potential small bump-up in ESE background swell for Tues-Wednesday. Moderate+ (increasing as the day goes on) SW-SSW winds are predicted for Tuesday, with lighter W-WSW winds on the map for early Wednesday before coming around onshore as a new round of low-pressure comes into play. Looking way ahead, potential setup for a hard-angled S windswell for late week/early weekend.

 

Tuesday 14 June 2011

Report: The small background mid-period E swell continues today with variable sideshore/onshore NE-ENE winds. As was the case the last few days, rideability will be relative and likely wax and wane with the tide, location, and wind intensity.

Prediciton: The trend looks to continue into early Wednesday, with offshore NW-NNW winds predicted early before likely giving way to S-SSE in the afternoon, so mid-morning (once the tide drains a bit) or the early afternoon incoming tide-push might see something worth getting wet on a fatty fish or big board before fading in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast: The E background swell machine that has been (weakly) working over the last few days looks like it may sputter out a bit Wednesday into Thursday, but it will likely be a moot point as the winds look like they will be pretty stiff sideshore/onshore from a south direction. Currently, a new S-SSE windswell build looks likely for late work-week, with potential offshore winds at the tail end or early weekend. Monitor sources of local weather for timely wind prediction and check back here late-week for an update.

 

 

Friday 10 June 2011

Report: Variable winds (was offshore earlier but is now SE-ESE) today but with trace to flat swell conditions.

Prediction: Onshore E-ESE winds look to come in play on Saturday, which could drive up a little bit of windswell. I do not foresee significant fetch or size developing for Saturday, and winds look to stay onshore at moderate+ strength through the entire day, but at this point we will take what we can get considering how minimal/miserable it has been for the last week or so.

Extended Forecast: Currently winds look side-offshore from the SSW early Sunday, and then possibly even going more SW-WSW later in the day with T-stormy conditions possibly, so be ready to take advantage of what little remnant windswell sticks around from the prior day combined with a possible small, steep-angled refraction-style S windswell if it all comes together. It is not the best setup, but any motion in the ocean would be a welcome change to break this flatspell.

 

Thursday 9 June 2011

Report: The heat is on but the wave machine is currently off. Trace to flat conditions and hot offshore winds.

Prediction: Coastal locations will likely see a warm-weather-induced windshift to the SE, but it will likely not have the fetch or intensity to drive any new swell. Some T-storms and variable winds are likely for Friday, but with minimal swell (maybe some ephemeral localized windswell in the shin-knee high range, at best).

Extended Forecast: Onshore E winds look to come in play on Saturday, which could drive up a minor windswell. Currently winds look like that may go side-offshore from the SSW on Sunday, so be ready to take advantage of what little remnant windswell sticks around from the prior day combined with a possible small, steep-angled refraction-style S windswell. It is not the best setup, but it is all the hope we have in the near future to break this flatspell.

 

 

Thursday 2 June 2011

Sorry for the lack of an update regarding today’s sorta-session, my real job and family had me tied up lately.

Report: Today we see remainders of that small-but-persistent mid-period E-ESE swell and brisk offshore NW-WNW winds. The waves are definitely being groomed by the wind, but the lines could be better as it is still coming in at a pretty dead-on angle. Find a bar or structure that is moulding the form and you might be rewarded with a waist-to-occasional-ribcage high wave, but most breaks I checked are on the smaller and less-formed end. Despite warm air temperatures, the water is cold as anything as well- boots and even light gloves are perfectly excusable.

Prediction: The offshore wind is predicted to pick up mid-day and hang around for at least another day or so (Friday), most likely knocking the swell down to pretty minimal levels.

Extended Forecast: Winds are looking pretty light to moderate from variable directions over the weekend into next week, but the prospect for bona fide swell is looking pretty nil. I cannot rule out a small background sneaker session (particularly on low-incoming tides), but I expect this to be a good weekend to catch up on errands and tasks around the house… might as well earn some points for when the tropics start to brew something significant.

 

Friday 27 May 2011

Report: Small combo East background and weak S windswell with SSW winds. Maybe doable on a log or fatty fish at standout breaks.

Prediction: Looks like continued/slightly bumped up E backround swell for the early part of the holiday weekend, but with SSW-SSE winds stepping on it (and adding a secondary windswell on top of it).

Memorial day into early next work-week: Looks like a continuation of E background swell with the potential for the winds to take a more SW or even WSW tilt; I am not going to be able to update until Tuesday at the earliest, so it will be up to you to monitor sources of local weather for more up to date wind predictions and keep your eyes and ears open for more timely wave reports.

 

 

Monday 23 May 2011

Report: Today we are seeing some continued E swell this AM, but looking pretty sloppy with E-ESE winds.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to make a swing to the S-SSE after a late-AM frontal passage and continue that way through late tonight. While there is not a whole lot of fetch to it, it should probably push up a small, hard-angled South swell for Tuesday AM on top of the fading East. Winds are predicted to come around to the SW-WSW overnight/early Tuesday AM, so what combo swell we see should be decently groomed. While offshore winds are predicted through tomorrow, as always beware of a potential warm-weather induced South windshift as the day heats up.

Extended Forecast: Minimal leftovers/background stuff for Wednesday under variable winds. Potential new South swell build late week through early weekend; check back in a day or so for an update.

 

Tuesday 10 May 2011

Report: An overnight increase in E background swell has yielded waist- to ribcage-high conditions this AM with sideshore N winds. Perhaps a more S-facing beach may be groomed enough for some fun waves.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to come up onshore as the day heats up/goes on, but might remain light enough to preserve some form of rideability. Keep your eyes on the flags and the surf cams if you are entertaining an afternoon session.

Extended Forecast: The good news is that some form of mid-period E swell is predicted to stick around for the remainder of the work-week; the bad news is that it looks like winds are going to be onshore through most of it. Still, if the winds are light enough (the outlook over the course of the next few days is currently bouncing between “light” and moderate” winds), we might see some reasonably rideable surf. I will leave that determination up to you as more timely wave and wind reports come in.

Weekend Outlook: Potential windswell-generating low pressure for late weekend into early work-week. Check back mid/late work-week for an update.

 

 

Monday 09 May 2011

Report: Micro background swell and offshore winds early, but even by now (mid-AM) the wind has come up from the SE.

Prediction: The upcoming week is not looking that exciting; while we are likely to see some mid-period E swell mid/late work-week, it looks like winds are going to be onshore through most of it. Still, if the winds are light enough (the outlook is currently bouncing between “light” and moderate” winds), we might see some reasonably rideable surf; I will leave that determination up to you as more timely wave and wind reports come in.

Extended Outlook: Potential windswell-generating low pressure for mid/late weekend into early work-week. Check back mid/late work-week for an update.

 

 

Thursday 05 May 2011

Report: The small but surprisingly satisfying combo background swell(s) of yesterday has mostly faded. Today we are seeing small background swell groomed by offshore winds, mostly in the knee- to thigh-high range.

Prediction: Much of the same throughout the day; you will probably have to wait out the mid-AM (9:30ish) high tide if you plan to give it a go (I would recommend a longboard or possibly super fatty fish at standout breaks). Perhaps the small background swell will get a little boost this afternoon on the low-incoming tide. Tomorrow early AM starts out similar (small background swell and predicted offshore winds), with winds likely coming around and up from the S as the day goes on and heats up.

Extended Forecast: The pattern of small background swell and offshore winds continues into early weekend, with a new round of low pressure and onshore wind coming into play overnight into Sunday. Check back late-weekend or early next work-week for an update.

 

Tuesday 03 May 2011

Report: S-SSW winds are driving up a small hard-angled windswell. Too small/weak to be considered enticing at the moment, IMO, but I suppose you could tackle it on a longboard at a sheltered break later in the day as/if it slowly builds.

Prediction: A minor low will push through overnight bringing offshore NW-WNW winds by early AM, so we might see a minor increase or combo-effect mini-swell for the early AM, but keep your expectations low if you decide to take a look or make a go of it, especially because the high tide around 9AM could easily swamp out small swell conditions.

Extended Forecast: A potential up-tick in East background swell late Thursday into early Friday with offshore winds is currently showing as a possibility on a few models. Check back mid-week for an update as the models resolve themselves and more reliable details develop.

 

Friday 29 April 2011

Report: Hard-angled South swell in the chest-shoulder high range on tap this AM with a pretty big high tide, but the overnight offshore winds were on the light side, so conditions are only semi-clean as of my surf check at 6AM.

Prediction: As the offshore wind picks up and the tide begins to drop later this AM we should start to see some organization/grooming conditions for much of the day, barring any warm-weather induced SE windshifts (temps are only supposed to reach the mid-50s, but sometimes that, combined with sunny weather, is unfortunately enough to drive the shift).

Extended Forecast: It looks like the fetch and duration of this swell could be deep enough for some leftover wave action to last (albeit significantly smaller) into at least the early part of Saturday; continued offshore NW-WNW winds are also predicted. Significant drop-off of the swell is likely for Sunday, but minor leftovers/tiny background swell is possible for the early hours before sideshore S-SSW winds come up as the day goes on.

 

 

Thursday 28 April 2011

Report: Stormy, windy weather driving up a new South swell.

Prediction: There is a slim chance of the front making its way through and bringing SSW-SW winds late day, but I am leaning towards this happening after dark. Winds are predicted to come up from the SW-WSW overnight, grooming out the swell. The good news is that there should be enough swell to make it through the night, so we should see groomed South swell conditions for much of the day tomorrow, barring any warm-weather induced SE windshifts (temps are only supposed to reach the 50s, but sometimes that, combined with possibly sunny weather, is unfortunately enough to drive the shift).

Extended Forecast: It looks like the fetch and duration of this swell could be deep enough for the leftover swell to last (albeit significantly smaller) into at least the early part of Saturday; continued offshore NW-WNW winds are also predicted. Significant drop-off of the swell is likely for Sunday, but minor leftovers/tiny background swell is possible for the early hours.

 

 

Wednesday 20 April 2011

Report: Still winds and foggy conditions this AM. Can't visually discern much of what is going on out there, but I anticipate some small semi-organized windswell.

Prediction: Increasing sideshore winds later today should push up a bit of hard-angled S windswell, followed up by a bit of SE mid-period groundswell as the low moves off the coast later this evening. Winds could go side-offshore (SW) late in the day, but we are also expected to get some T-stormy weather as the front pushes through, so tough to say if we will see a window of rideability before things get dark and/or dicey. Strong offshore winds are predicted to blow overnight, which will likely knock the windswell portion down, but if we are lucky we could still see some small mid-period groundswell, spun off the back of the low as it moves offshore, Thursday AM with offshore winds.

 

Extended Forecast: Onshore-sideshore winds ramp up again late Friday though Saturday, potentially pushing up a new S windswell for the weekend. Right now winds look to come around offshore NW-NNW for Sunday. Check back later this week for an update.

 

 

15 April 2011

Report: Onshore winds today and small sloppy windswell; not worth going, IMO.

Prediction: Low pressure brings rain and swell-building onshore winds on Saturday. Winds are currently predicted to shift offshore overnight Saturday-Sunday, cleaning up a respectable ESE windswell.

Extended Forecast: Smaller, but potentially still in the “fun” range, leftovers and continued offshore winds are currently predicted for Monday; monitor sources of local weather for more up-to-date wind forecasts. Potential for a hard-angle S windswell build for Tues-Wednesday; timing of a cleanup is TBD.

 

Tuesday 12 April 2011

Report: Small mixed swell and N winds this Tuesday AM. Not looking horrible, but not all that enticing either; I suppose stand-out breaks may yield a few decent rides and south-facing breaks may be holding a semi-clean wave.

Prediction: Increasing NE-ENE winds this afternoon should drive up some new E windswell, but remain sloppy for the rest of the day. Moderate S-SE winds on Wednesday should push up a little S windswell on top of it as well. Unfortunately, the previously-anticipated mid-day offshore wind shift will likely hold off until pretty late in the day or even after dark, so a hit-and-run scenario is looking more and more likely as the time draws near. Still, keep your eyes on the flags and monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Winds are predicted to come up from the NW-NNW overnight Wednesday-Thursday, cleaning up but knocking down what modest windswell we do receive. While not an optimal scenario whatsoever, there is a fair chance of small leftovers for Thursday AM if you can find a break handling the side-off angle of the winds. Looking in the longer-term, onshore winds come into play late week-early weekend, with a potential cleanup late weekend. Check back late week for an update.

 

 

Sunday 10 April 2011

Report: Some ESE swell in the chest to shoulder high range running this AM with light side-offshore S-SSW winds. The early low tide and more direct angle of the swell is looking a bit over-walled at the true beach breaks, but standout breaks with structure should be/are reportedly holding it a bit better.

Prediction: Onshore S-SSE winds are predicted to pick up by mid-day, presumably reducing what limited wave quality we are seeing this morning, but the deepening tide might preserve some of the ridability.

Extended Forecast: The swell looks to drop off a bit for Monday AM but with somewhat more favorable SSW winds early, which could yield reasonably organized conditions at more E-facing and sheltered breaks. Increasing S-SSE winds in the afternoon may drive up a bit of new hard-angled S windswell on top of the fading ESE, but conditions will likely be on the disorganized side. Low-pressure moves in on Tuesday, bringing with it rain and more swell-generating onshore winds. Passage of the front on Wednesday should yield a rotation of the winds from S-SSE early to offshore WNW if current predictions hold. Check back late Monday or Tuesday for an update.

 

 

Monday 04 April 2011

Report: Small conditions in the shin- to knee-high range with windy S-SSW winds.

Prediction: Increasing S-SSW winds and building swell for the remainder of the day through early AM Tuesday, remaining burly and drifty until the wind shifts to stiff offshore mid-AM on Tuesday; look for a mid-/late-AM cleanup of a steep-angled S swell when it does (monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind predictions). Small leftovers, at best, for Wednesday with continued offshore WSW-SW winds.

Extended Forecast: Onshore winds for late-week into the weekend may eventually drive up a new windswell with a potential cleanup for late weekend (subject to change as the models sort out the noise). Check back mid-/late-week for an update.

 

 

Thursday 24 March 2011

Report: Onshore NE winds and sloppy E-ENE windswell.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to slowly rotate around to the N-NNW as the day goes on, so we may see a cleanup/semi-cleanup late-day, depending on the local coastline angle and exposure to the winds.

Extended Forecast: Wave heights are predicted to drop off a notch or so but the period is predicted to lengthen a bit for Friday AM as the low pushes off the coast. Winds are predicted to come around more NNW-NW for Friday, so SE-ESE-facing breaks should see clean conditions, with more East-facing breaks potentially having side-offshore texture.

Weekend Outlook: Offshore/semi-offshore winds (between WNW and NNW) are predicted for the weekend, but minimal swell is on the charts; maybe a little leftover background bump early Saturday, but not all that much

 

 

Tuesday 22 March 2011

Report: A little more leftover swell than expected this AM. It is looking in the thigh- to waist-high range with NW-NNW winds, so more-South-facing beaches may be picking up more size and cleaner conditions.

Prediction: Another round of low pressure and onshore winds on Wednesday into early Thursday may push up a minor SE windswell/E background swell combo for the latter half of the work-week.

Extended Forecast: Winds are currently predicted to eventually rotate to the N and then the NNW-NW on Thursday into Friday, so if the background swell sticks around (most likely in pretty small form), ridable surf could be had at choice locations. Monitor sources of local weather information and check back here mid/late week for an update. Another round of inclement weather and swell-building onshore winds appears to be setting up over the weekend.

 

 

 

Monday 21 March 2011

Report: Well, it is officially springtime, but judging from the weather outside, you might not realize it! Today is pretty rainy and windy with a weak and sloppy SSE windswell.

Prediction: The weather is supposed to break around mid-day and we might see a slow rotation of the winds from sideshore to side-offshore (SSW-SW) as the afternoon goes on. If so, a cleanup or semi-cleanup before dark is possible. Monitor sources of local weather information for up-to-date wind reports and predictions. Winds are predicted to go stiff NW-NNW overnight, leaving minimal leftovers/potential flatness for Tuesday AM.

Extended Forecast: Another round of low pressure and onshore winds on Wednesday into early Thursday may push up some windswell for the latter half of the work-week. Check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

 

Tuesday 15 March 2011

I am a bit under the weather, so this one is going to be concise and only looking at the short-term:

Prediction: Building ESE windswell overnight Tuesday-Wednesday with a SW to WSW windshift, and subsequent clean-up, predicted late-AM or early afternoon on Wednesday.

Check back later this week (hopefully tomorrow) when I have the facilities to weigh-in beyond this short-term outlook.

 

 

 

 

Thursday 10 Mach 2011

Report: Windy, rainy weather and building E-ESE windswell.

 

Prediction: Not gonna clean up today, but winds are predicted to come around from the SW mid-AM and then eventually WSW on Friday, which should clean things up by late morning or early afternoon. The double-digit period of the swell combined with a 4:30PM low tide might cause some over-wall issues, so keep that in mind when selecting your break.

Extended Forecast: The swell is looking maintain some momentum through the weekend, gradually losing a bit of steam and assuming a pretty dead-on East angle by Sunday. Predominantly offshore winds are predicted for both Saturday and Sunday, but looking at the warm temperatures and sunny conditions on Saturday raises a little concern that winds might assume a more SSW or even S-SSE angle as the day goes on. As always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind reports and predictions.

 

Looking beyond the weekend: Remnant background groundswell may stick around for early work-week, but winds are currently predicted to come around from the N-NNE, so what little swell remains may get stepped on by the winds.

 

 

 

Saturday 5 March 2011

Report: Small, choppy, sloppy windswell with S-SSE winds.

Prediction: Increasing S-SSE winds later today through Sunday should drive up a S windswell. Winds are currently predicted to go offshore overnight Sunday-Monday, and assume a more N-NNW tilt, so travel to a protected break or south-facing shoreline might be required to catch a cleanup early work-week.

Extended Forecast: Looks like more onshore winds for much of the work-week, which should drive up more swell. Check back late weekend or early work-week for an update.

 

 

 

Monday 28 February 2011

Report: Small, choppy, south windswell with SE-SSE winds. Looking pretty weak and disorganized at present.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to slowly come around from the S-SSW and then SW later this afternoon as the front passes through, bringing with it some rainy and possibly T-stormy weather. If the timing of this is early enough and the T-storm factor holds off, we stand at least a chance to catch a semi-cleanup before dark. Unfortunately, winds are predicted to come up pretty hard NW-NNW overnight come around sideshore N for Tuesday AM, so the probability of an overnight hit-and-run is running pretty high for this minor swell event.

Extended Forecast: Offshore winds are predicted for Wednesday, but without much, if any, wave action left in the water it might be all for naught, surf-wise. A round of onshore wind is forecasted to settle in late work-week, which could drive up some new swell for the weekend. Check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

 

Friday 25 February 2011

Report: Rainy weather with some strong SE winds. Building windswell.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to come around hard from the SW-WSW sometime in the afternoon as the front clears. The models are conflicting, with the timing of this spread out between mid-afternoon and after dark, so skunkage is definitely a possibility. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags.

Extended Forecast: Potential for minor background leftovers on Saturday with NW-NNW winds early with the pattern breaking down and potentially going sideshore later. Mixed winds and trace background swell for Sunday. Potential new S-SSE windswell build for late-weekend into Monday. Check back late weekend or early next work-week for an update.

 

 

Wednesday 23 February 2011

Report: Small E-ENE leftovers/trace background swell with NW-NNW wind.

Prediction: A light onshore breeze will probably develop this afternoon. Increasing sideshore S-SSE winds are predicted for Thursday along with the arrival of inclement weather (rain and wind) late Thursday into Friday. This should drive up some S-SSE windswell for Friday, with winds predicted to come around from the SW-WSW sometime in the afternoon as the front clears (monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information).

Extended Forecast: Potential for minor background leftovers on Saturday with mixed winds. Light onshore winds and trace background swell at best for Sunday. Check back later this week for an update.

 

 

 

Thursday 17 February 2011

Report: Minimal S-SSW windbump and SW-WSW winds.

Prediction: The weather is unseasonably warm today, so I anticipate an increase in wind intensity and a more S-SSE tilt this afternoon. A minor hard-angled S-SSW windswell looks to be on tap for Friday with offshore SW-WSW winds. It is a similar setup but is not showing quite the same numbers as, and is coming from an even steeper angle than, the semi-sneaker Valentines Day swell, so keep that in mind it may miss more than hit our coastline. Still, might be worth keeping an eye on things as conditions develop.

Extended Forecast: Hard offshore winds and trace background swell, at best, for the weekend. A low is predicted to move through late Sunday into Monday, so we might see some E swell build on the backside of this front for late Monday or Tuesday. Keep an eye on sources of local weather and online sources for up-to-date information.

 

 

Sunday 13 February 2011

Report: Near-flat conditions this AM with S-SSW winds.

Prediction: Increasing S-SSW winds may drive up a small hard-angled S windswell overnight for Monday AM. It is looking like one of those extreme-angled swells that are going to be very hit-or-miss in NJ depending on shoreline angle/exposure (the more S-facing, the more likely it will be to pick something up); I am packing a just-in-case small-wave board and suit but not sure if I will be getting wet just yet. Predicted offshore W-WSW winds for Monday suggest that if something does indeed register, it should be clean to semi-clean (again, depending on shoreline angle and exposure).

Extended Forecast: Trace background swell at best through much of the work-week. Another potential setup of hard-angled S windswell late work-week or early weekend. Check back mid-week for updates.

NOTE: Check out the review I posted of my Hyperflex Amp Aerodome 6/5/4 on the reviews page.

 

 

 

Tuesday 1 February 2011

Report: Some rainy/snowy weather (depending on where you are in NJ) and some building sloppy windswell.

Prediction: The weather is predicted to take a turn for the worse overnight, resulting in some strengthening of the onshore winds for Wednesday AM. As the system breaks its hold late morning or early afternoon, winds are predicted to come around offshore at a pretty stiff clip, so an early- or mid-afternoon cleanup is looking more and more likely. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your eyes on the flags.

Extended Forecast: The swell is probably going to take a pretty good beat-down overnight Wednesday-Thursday thanks to the stiff offshore winds, so expect small to minor leftover background groundswell in the wake of the storm. Another minor snow/rain/brief onshore wind event on Saturday, but not a whole lot in the outlook for Superbowl weekend except maybe a minor windswell/windbump and offshore winds on Sunday.

 

 

Wednesday 26 January 2011

Report: Onshore winds and sloppy building ENE windswell.

Prediction: More of the same through today. Winds are predicted to slowly come around overnight Wednesday-Thursday and cool things down again. The current call is for NW-NNW winds early Thursday AM, settling into a more NW-WNW pattern as the morning goes on; the timing of this could be moved up or delayed depending which track the system finally takes (an over- vs. inland-track for this system has been in debate). Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind predictions. This swell will likely not have that much fetch associated with it, so anticipate the size to fade a bit through the day.

Extended Forecast: Anticipate much smaller background/minimal conditions for Friday with offshore NW-WNW winds. Unfortunately there is nothing in the long-term outlook to suggest swell for the weekend or early next week.

 

 

Tuesday 18 January 2011

Report: Strong onshore winds with sloppy, building conditions.

Prediction: Continued onshore winds through today are predicted to build an E-ESE windswell. Winds are currently predicted to go N-NNW tonight and then offshore NW after midnight , so we might be looking at some knock-down in size by Wednesday AM. Nonetheless I am sure we will be surfing Wednesday as some swell should remain in the water and winds are predicted to assume a favorable W-WNW angle, grooming conditions. Monitor sources of local weather to track the timing of the offshore winds.

Extended Forecast: As the front pulls away from the coast, it might leave some small-to-tiny groundswell leftovers in its wake for early Thursday, but this is not a given, and the big high tide in the AM may snuff it anyway. A quick shot of sideshore SE winds looks to arrive for late Thursday-early Friday, followed up by another shift to strong offshores Friday AM, but I suspect these winds may not have the intensity or duration to push up any significant swell. Check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

Tuesday 11 Jan 2011

Report: Light onshore winds and trace background swell, but it is pretty much Lake Atlantic out there. You would be might be able to grab one or two token waves on a big ol’ longboard or paddleboard on a lower tide, but even that might be pushing it.

Prediction: Low pressure (and some snowy weather) with onshore winds are predicted for later this evening through early Wednesday, with a follow-up of arctic-blast of offshore winds as the front begins to clear out late Wednesday AM. Unfortunately, it looks like the low is going to hug the coast as it moves through, so I do not think the winds will have enough fetch or duration to push up any meaningful windswell.

Extended Forecast: Flat to trace background swell, at best, for the remainder of the work-week, with continued offshore wind and cold weather. Check back later this week for an update.

 

Wednesday 6 January 2011

Report: Trace background swell, but it is pretty much Lake Atlantic out there. You would be hard-pressed to catch anything save for maybe a Kayak or paddleboard, and even that might be pushing it.

Prediction: Low pressure (and some snowy weather) with sideshore S winds are predicted for early Friday, with a follow-up of arctic-blast of offshore winds as the front begins to clear out late Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, I do not think the winds will have enough fetch or duration to push up any meaningful windswell.

Extended Forecast: Trace background swell, at best, for the weekend. More wintery weather is predicted mid-week, with the potential to set up some windswell. Check back late-weekend or early next week for an update.

 

 

Monday 3 Jan 2011

Back on the scene and hoping for a wave-filled 2011…

Report: Unfortunately we are not getting a good start; we are seeing next-to-nothingness this AM with clean offshore conditions.

Prediction: Minimal conditions and offshore winds for the first half of the work-week. Pretty dismal outlook for getting wet in the next few days.

Extended Forecast: Similar outlook for the second half of the week, but we cannot totally rule out trace sneaker/background waves on the right tides, particularly for Thursday or early Friday. Check back mid-week for an udate.

 

 

Thursday 23 December 2010

Report: Looking pretty mini out there. What little E-ENE background swell is out there is pretty clean but struggling with the strong NW winds.

Prediction: Potential up-tick in E-ENE background swell for Christmas Eve day, with continued strong offshore winds. The background swell looks to drop back off for Christmas Day, but with lighter offshore winds, so it is entirely possible we may see ridable conditions (on a big board) on low-incoming tides.

Extended Forecast: It looks like a new storm system is brewing up for the day after Christmas. It is still not clear if this will be an on-top-of-us coastal storm or form a bit offshore like the one earlier this week.

NOTE: I will be away without internet access for much of early next week, so unless I sneak in an update early weekend you are on your own until then. See you back here shortly before the New Year.

 

 

Sunday 19 December 2010

Report: Minor background/windswell bump and N winds. Nothing worth suiting up for today, IMO.

Prediction: It looks like the rumored Noreaster for late weekend/early week is going to miss us (forming and staying offshore instead of on top of the northeastern seaboard), but we should see some swell-effect in the form of a E-ENE mid-period groundswell early Monday. Increasing and continued N winds through early Monday. Winds are predicted to come around more NNW-NW through Monday evening, so South-facing beaches may see some decently-groomed lefts later in the day.

Extended Forecast: The slow-moving storm is predicted to linger offshore, so we are likely looking at continued E-ENE groundswell through mid-week (perhaps even a little longer) with winds predicted to bounce around between WNW and NNW, so we could very well be looking at ridable baseline conditons or better for the week. Check back early/midweek for an update.

 

13 December 2010

Report/Prediction: Solid SE swell in the water, winds are blowing offshore WNW and starting to groom it out. Tide is a bit low and things are shutting down a bit, on average, at the moment due to the low tide.

Prediction: Stand-out breaks are starting to work and the late-incoming/high holds promise in general. A late-AM or mid-day session with some water on the bars is the call with continued W-WNW winds predicted. It might start to shut down/over-wall again as the tide drains this afternoon/evening, but you should still be able to hunt down something worthwhile if that is your only option.

Extended Forecast: It looks like some form of groundswell should hang around through tomorrow and even into Wednesday, with continued offshore (and cold) offshore winds predicted. The swell will make a slow rotation to a more dead-East angle over that period, so use your local knowledge to plan accordingly

 

 

 

Wednesday 8 December 2010

Report: Tiny background swell lapping the shoreline this AM. Tide too high for anything to break.

Prediction: Perhaps a minor bump-up in background groundswell late Wednesday into early Thursday; I am not anticipating significant swell, maybe just something sneaking into the ridable-realm (but well-groomed with NW-WNW winds) at standout breaks.

Extended Forecast: Winds look to turn side-shore briefly on Friday and back offshore on Saturday, so a minor mid-period backdoor swell may materialize for Sat AM (the mid-day high tide will likely snuff it out). Some inclement weather heading our way late-weekend, which might drive up some new South swell for Monday. Check back later this week for an update.

 

Tuesday 7 December 2010

Report: Minimal background groundswell (even more minimal than the last few days during which standout South-facing breaks have reportedly yielded ride-able, albeit small, waves).

Prediction: Similar minimal background conditions through the end of the week/early weekend. Perhaps a minor bump-up in background groundswell late-Wed/early Thursday, but we are not talking significant swell, maybe just something marginally ride-able like the previous few days.

Extended Forecast: Some inclement weather heading our way late-weekend, which might drive up some new swell for early next week. Check back later this week for an update.

 

Monday 6 December 2010

Report: Trace ESE background swell and hard WNW winds.

Prediction: Not much happening wave-wise through the rest of the day. I suppose if you find a wind-sheltered standout break on the low-incoming tide you might be able to find a few rides on a Longboard, but that might only be for the desperate/crazy among us.

Extended Forecast: Trace background swell at best, and continued strong offshore winds, through mid-week. We might see a little S-SSW windswell generated late week or early weekend, but it does not look significant from this early vantage point. Check back mid/late-week for an update.

 

Tuesday 30 November 2010

Prediction: Increasing SE winds start to kick later today/tonight through early Wednesday and drive up a new SE windswell. Winds are predicted to snap to strong offshore and clean things up late Wednesday afternoon with the arrival of a high pressure cold-front; currently I am a bit worried that this might happen a bit too late in the day for a bonifide cleanup before dark (especially with the rain/cloud-cover resulting in an early loss of daylight), but you should definitely monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and keep your fingers crossed that the front clears on or ahead of schedule.

Extended Forecast: A bit of background E-ESE groundswell may get stirred up in the wake of the front and linger for a bit under continued brisk offshore NW-WNW winds on Thursday. Potential for renewal of small E-ESE background swell to materialize for late-week into the weekend. Check back late-week for an update on this potential follow-up.

 

 

 

Monday 29 November 2010

Report: Flat to shin-high with light and variable onshore/sideshore breezes.

Prediction: Increasing SE winds start to kick later today/tonight through early Wednesday and drive up a new SE windswell. Winds are predicted to snap to strong offshore and clean things up late Wednesday with the arrival of a high pressure cold-front; currently this looks to happen early/mid-afternoon, but you should definitely monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information and check back here late tomorrow or early Wednesday for an update.

Extended Forecast: Small background ESE groundswell may materialize in the wake of the front and linger for a bit under continued strong offshore winds. Look for better resolution of this potential follow-up in the next update.

 

 

Wednesday 24 Nov 2010

Report: Trace background bump at best with hard NW-NNW winds this AM.

Prediction: Much of the same, wave- and wind-wise, for early Thanksgiving Day. Some rainy weather and sideshore S winds are predicted to develop for late Thursday through early Friday, which may drive up a small, hard-angled S-SSW windswell. Again, not a whole lot of fetch behind this one, but hopefully something to at least get wet on an longboard or fish. Winds are predicted to go back offshore Friday afternoon after the front passes, so we should see a cleanup of whatever small windswell is generated by the earlier sideshore winds.

Extended Forecast: Continued cold-front style NW-WNW winds and nada/minimal background swell for the weekend. A blip on the radar, so to speak, suggests a new round of swell early/mid next week, followed up by another cold blast of offshore winds. Time will tell; check back sometime after the holiday for an update.

 

 

 

Thursday 18 November 2010

Report: After an evening of hollow, head-high barrels last night, we are looking at near-flat conditions this am, in the knee-high range, groomed by offshore winds.

Prediction: Minimal/trace background swell at best for the remainder of the work-week with offshore/side-offshore winds.

Extended Forecast: The weekend outlook is looking equally pessimistic, with minimal swell predicted. Check back late-weekend or early next work-week for an update.

 

 

Monday 15 November 2010

Report: Some leftover mid-period E groundswell in the stomach- to shoulder-high range, perhaps a bit + at standout spots. Conditions are currently pretty glassy with dead/light NE wind and somewhat wobbly/backwashy and closed-out due to the direct angle (with better form around structures and broken-up bars). Search and you may be rewarded.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to stay light and variable today, so look for a continuation of similar surface conditions and possibly increasing wave quality as more water floods the bars.

Extended Forecast: Some SE winds and rain comes into play Tuesday though early Wednesday, driving a little SE windswell on top of a fading E background swell. This one does not appear to have a whole lot of fetch associated with it, so do not expect anything like our previous banging south swell; more likely a little something to refresh the fading swell we currently have running. Winds are predicted to make a quick shift to hard offshore on Wednesday AM with the arrival of a new cold front, which should clean up whatever combo-swell is out there at the time. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind reports and predictions.

 

 

Friday 12 November 2010

Report: Today we have ample swell in the form of combo NE windswell/E groundswell, but plenty of wind from the NE-NNE is keeping the surf unruly.

Prediction: The good news is that there should be swell on-tap now through the weekend, but the bad news is that winds are likely not going to be entirely cooperative. Currently, the sideshore NNE winds are predicted to back down a bit on Saturday, which could open up a window to surf some semi-clean windswell locally, or you could always relocate to a South-facing or protected break. On Sunday, winds look to rotate around from the ENE to the SE as the day goes on, which could result in some ok conditions dependent on the intensity of the winds. As always, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast: Looks like some form of E swell could last into early/mid work-week, but winds are looking troublesome at the moment (a sideshore S-SSE pattern looks to be developing). Check back late-weekend or early next work-week for an update.

NOTE: Keep your eye on the Surf News Section (blinking marquee-style box to the upper right) for updates, especially over the weekend; I usually post prediction updates there if I suspect there might be a delay between my submission and their getting posted, and have been trying to keep the surf-related news content fresh as well.

 

 

Monday 8 November 2010

NOTE: Sorry about the lack of an update here on the main page. Keep in mind that I occasionally post quick-updates in the Surf News section (blinking marquee box to upper right) late at night and over the weekend to bridge the gap between when I send the updates and when they get posted. Best to keep an eye on it for such updates and surf-related happenings.

Report: Small leftover E background swell and offshore NW-WNW winds. Tough to call size due to the very-high tide swamping it, but it is looking knee- to thigh-high, give or take. I suppose we might see some minor surf as the tide drains, perhaps good enough for a big board, but if you do make a go of it, keep those expectations scaled to the conditions.

Prediction: Strong NNW-N winds look to dominate Tuesday, with minimal background swell and perhaps the beginnings of some steep-angled building N-NNE windswell.

Extended Forecast: Plenty of NE-ENE windswell on the charts for the latter half of the work-week, but sideshore/onshore NE-NNE winds are predicted to step all over it. Check back here mid-week for an update, and as always monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions

 

 

Saturday 6 November 2010

Report: After near-epic (only issue was the drained-out low tide, which filled in sufficiently before dark) OH freight-train barrels last night, we have smaller conditions plagued by N-NNW winds putting a little side-chop on it. More South-facing and protected breaks will hold the best waves today, but even exposed beaches may produce decent surf as well.

Prediction: The groundswell should continue, in some form, through today and into tomorrow. We are likely looking at continued North winds for the remainder of today. Winds currently look like they should take a more NNW-NW tilt tomorrow. Extreme tides are running, so you will have to strike a balance between lots and little water. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions.

Extended Forecast: Significantly smaller leftovers on Monday, possibly with more-favorable NW winds. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions. Check back here (first reference the Surf News section, above, since I can get updates posted there much quicker) for and update late-weekend or early work-week.

 

Thursday 4 Nov 2010

Report: Onshore winds and sloppy building E-ESE windswell this AM.

Prediction: Not only did the outlook for the swell-size improve, but so did the predicted winds. It looks like the front may not find a bulldog death-grip on the coast as originally projected, but rather at least start its eastward move late today. In fact, we might see a pre-frontal de-stabilization of the onshore winds currently dominating our region, which could bring some offshore winds into play late today. If so, we might see a semi-cleanup of the unruly windswell, but I am not so convinced as to make the call for sure (but did pack some gear in the car just in case). Monitor sources of local weather info and keep your eyes on the flags and fingers crossed.

Extended Forecast: The other bit of good news is that it appears that SE groundswell looks to back-fill on the backside of this front as it pushes offshore and brings stiff offshore winds on Friday. Look for this groundswell to persist into, and even through, the weekend. Winds are currently looking like a favorable NW-WNW early, and a bit more tilted to the NNW-N, as the weekend goes on. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions.

 

 

Wednesday 3 November 2010

Luckily, as hoped, a lot has indeed changed concerning the swell outlook for the next few days. Read on…

Report: today we have some tiny background swell in the shin- to maybe knee-high range. It is looking pretty weak, but clean, so perhaps you may find something to glide on with your biggest board if you are desperate. Winds are currently offshore, but are predicted to go light-moderate S-SSE later this afternoon.

Prediction: Onshore winds, rainy weather, and small windswell predicted for Thursday. A new mid-period ESE groundswell is predicted to fill in the latter half of Friday, with N winds early, switching to NW-WNW as the front clears in the late AM/early afternoon.

Extended Forecast: Continued groundswell and offshore WNW winds are predicted for Saturday. Some groundswell leftovers and NW-NNW winds are predicted for Sunday as well. Check back late work-week an update and monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

 

 

 

Thursday 28 October 2010

Report: Well, the bad news is that the low lingered on the coast overnight so the winds have yet to go offshore; the good news is that, as a result of this, our windswell was not knocked down overnight. Today we have S-SSW winds and a semi-clean hard-angled S windswell in the waist- to maybe chest-high range. The tide is on its way up (high around 10:30) this AM, so target a higher-tide break if you make a go of it early or maybe wait it out for the drain.

Prediction: Currently, winds are predicted to slowly come around to a more SW-WSW angle sometime later this AM or early afternoon, which should clean things up when it does, so monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Stronger offshore WNW-NW winds and smaller remnant leftover swell are predicted for Friday. Continued offshore winds and small background swell through the remainder of the work-week, with a potential up-tick in the background swell late Saturday or early Sunday. Check back often for updates.

 

 

 

Tuesday 26 October 2010

Report: Well, of course the big news is that we are finally seeing some motion in the ocean. Today we have S-SSW winds and a weak, hard-angled S windswell in the thigh- to waist-high range. It is struggling through a pretty big high tide (09:30) this AM, but maybe as the tide drains and/or turns around late this afternoon we may see something worth getting wet.

Prediction: Increasing S-SSE winds are predicted over the next 24 hours or so, so expect a continued slow build of hard-angled S-SSE windswell for Wednesday. Currently, winds are predicted to slowly come around to a more SSW-SW angle sometime tomorrow afternoon, so keep your fingers crossed for this to happen earlier than later and for the angle to be more offshore than sideshore. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Stronger offshore winds and smaller leftovers are predicted for Thursday; getting on it early AM before the incoming tide swamps it and the it gets beaten down by the offshores by the afternoon will be the safer bet. Continued offshore winds and small background swell through the remainder of the work-week, with a potential up-tick in the background swell late Saturday or early Sunday. Check back often for updates.

 

Thursday 21 Oct 2010

Report: A touch of motion in the ocean this afternoon: an ever-so-slight windswell/background swell combo is moving a little water around, maybe in the shin- to knee-high range and very weak. Conditions are groomed by a hard offshore SW-WSW wind. If you your mental state, strained but the recent flat-spell, compels you to get in, go armed with your biggest board (or maybe a kayak).

Prediction: Looks like a continuation of trace background swell and hard offshore winds tomorrow, give or take a couple inches on the sorta-swell height.

Extended Forecast: The high-pressure/cold-front appears to have dropped anchor on us, so expect continued offshore winds grooming minimal-to-small background swell conditions for the weekend. Looking way ahead, some form of relief may come mid-week in the form of a small mid-period ESE swell, but it is too early to make any prediction on that yet.

 

 

 

Wednesday 13 Oct 2010

Report: Small-scale background waves in the shin- to knee-high range with N winds.

Prediction: Winds should rotate around to NNE then ENE this afternoon, but remain light (and not drive up any new windswell). Minimal background swell and E-ENE winds look to continue into early Thursday as well.

Extended Forecast: Increasing E-ESE winds and some inclement weather comes into the picture late Thursday afternoon through the evening. Unfortunately these onshore winds do not look likely to last long enough, nor have enough fetch, to drum up any significant swell; too bad because some stiff offshore winds are predicted for Friday. The current outlook for the weekend is equally disappointing: hard offshore winds and minimal to nil swell.

 

 

 

 

 

Monday 4 October 2010

Report: Hard NE-ENE winds and washy HH+ storm surf.

Prediction: More of the same for the rest of today. As the low clears out overnight Monday-Tuesday, SW-SSW winds come into play, so clean(er)/semi-clean E windswell conditions should develop, depending on location; target more E-facing and/or protected breaks to minimize the sideshore wind-effect, or consider a move to SNJ where winds are predicted to be more W-WSW (since the low should clear the coast a few hours earlier down there). Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Smaller E windswell/ESE background swell leftovers for Wednesday, with offshore W-WSW winds on the charts. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Small background swell conditions and offshore winds dominate the pattern for late-week; check back mid-week for an update.

 

 

Friday 1 October 2010

Report: Onshore winds and sloppy conditions. Waiting for the wind to turn.

Prediction: As the remnants of TS Nicole clear out this AM, expect the S-SSE winds to give-way to strong NW-NNW winds mid-morning. Sizable S windswell/ESE groundswell conditions are on tap for this AM, but unfortunately the winds on the backside of the system are looking like they may tilt rather sideshore N-NNW as the day goes on, which would force long-distance relocation for better/cleaner conditions. That said, the wind outlook for this period of time (between when the low clears and high-pressure settles in) has been all over the place, so the timing of the shift and precise direction (more offshore or more sideshore) cannot yet be ruled out, so monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Smaller (but not necessarily small) ESE groundswell and more favorable NW-NNW winds are currently predicted for Saturday, so there is potential for decent conditions for early weekend. Lingering groundswell leftovers are still on the charts for Sunday with moderate+ sideshore winds between NNW and NNE. A new round of mid-period E swell is shaping up for early work-week, but the N winds are predicted to stick around through Tuesday as well. Check back late weekend or early work-week for an update.

NOTE: The Garden State Grudge Match is scheduled for Saturday on the North side of Casino Pier.

 

Thursday 30 Sept 2010

Report: Onshore winds and sloppy, building conditions.

Prediction: As the remnants of TS Nicole roll over us Thursday into early Friday, expect strong S-SSE winds, lots of rainfall, and a building S windswell/ESE groundswell. Sizable conditions are on tap for Friday AM, but unfortunately the winds on the backside of the system are currently looking pretty sideshore NNW-N, which would force long-distance relocation for better/cleaner conditions. That said, the wind outlook for this period of time (between when the low clears and high-pressure settles in) has been all over the place, so the timing and precise tilt in either direction (more offshore or more sideshore) cannot yet be ruled out, so monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Smaller (but not necessarily small) ESE groundswell and more favorable NW-WNW winds are currently predicted for Saturday, so there is potential for decent conditions for the weekend crowd as well. Lingering/remnant groundswell leftovers are still on the charts for Sunday with moderate winds between NNW and NNE.

NOTE: Since the wind forecasts for Friday-Saturday-Sunday have been all over the place (and I do not quite trust them), I am planning to update (particularly concerning the Saturday session) tomorrow as well. Check back here and the Surf News section for updates.

 

 

 

 

Monday 27 September 2010

Report: Choppy, sloppy, onshore SE windswell. Nothing going on locally.

Forecast: Increasing S-SSE winds tomorrow, which should build some South windswell. Winds might assume a slightly more SSW-SW tilt towards evening, so a semi-cleanup is possible late-day. Winds are predicted to drop-out and come around light and variable (potentially offshore) overnight Tuesday-Wednesday, providing an early-AM windswell cleanup. Monitor local weather sources for up-to-date wind information.

Extended Forecast: Low pressure down in the Caribbean may develop into TS Nicole and make a move to the NE, tracking up the Eastern Seaboard. As things stand right now, and if the “steering mechanisms” stay in place, we should find ourselves in its path on Thursday; as long as this system kicks off the Carolinas and does not hug our coast too close, we could see sufficient fetch for a developing late-week groundswell. Once the system moves to our north (likely by Friday), we could find ourselves receiving offshore winds to compliment the swell. Check back mid-week for details.

 

 

 

Friday 24 Sept 2010

Report: Small mid-period background ESE swell with sideshore S-SSW winds this AM. Semi-clean but not well-formed, with a high and still rising tide snuffing it out a bit.

Forecast: Continued S-SSW winds through today, which may gradually build a minor hard-angled S windswell on top of the small mid-period ESE background swell. Winds go SW-WSW overnight Fri-Sat, which should result in pretty clean conditions on a small combo swell for early Saturday, but a big 9AM high tide might prove problematic. Best bet will be super early AM at a high-tide spot, or wait until the tide drains a bit and hope the minor swell conditions can hold in there.

Extended Forecast: Minor background/leftover swell for Sunday with light sideshore-onshore N-NE winds. We are looking at a bit of inclement weather for the first half of next week, so if factors line up we might get set up for some windswell mid/late week. Check back early in the work-week for an update.

NOTE: Some upcoming surf events (notably the Kenny Tooker memorial contest and the Manasquan Classic) are posted in the Surf News section, as well as a few boards I have for sale (I recently lowered the prices on them for Eastcoastsurfer.com readers).

 

 

 

 

Saturday 18 Sept 2010

Report: Clean/semi-clean this AM with a SW wind and a head-high+ ESE groundswell from Igor. Clean conditions might not last for long though…

Predictions: Winds are predicted to come up from the N-NE as the day goes on, which will chop things up a bit. Continued building groundswell for Sunday with variable (currently looking light offshore/sideshore NW-NNW early, likely onshore later as the day heats up) winds are on the models for Sunday, so plan accordingly. Because of the unstable nature of the local wind forecasts over the next few days, it is recommended you monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information as wind direction and intensity will dramatically affect wave quality.

Extended Forecast: Continued/peaking E-ESE groundswell from Igor for Monday, but with moderate+ N winds predicted. The groundswell looks like it will be on a rapid down-swing Tuesday on as Igor exits our swell window. Check back early work-week for an update and monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind info.

NOTE: Some boards for sale are posted in the Surf News section; at least two of them (the Bonzer and the Fly) might be just the ticket for the upcoming larger surf.

 

 

 

Thursday 16 September 2010

Report (mid-day): ESE groundswell from Igor starting to show, but also some strong SSE wind/windswell.

Prediction: Continued building ESE groundswell from Igor, and some remnant SSE windswell, on the charts for Friday with offshore WNW-NW winds to boot. The numbers look convincing, but beware the potential for a warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SSE.

Extended Forecast: Continued building groundswell from Igor through the weekend (peaking on Sunday) and sustaining into early next week. The two things that concern me about this swell are the winds (all over the place; looking predominantly onshore/sideshore on Sat and somewhere between NNW and NNE for Sunday into early next week, BUT the models have been pretty flip-floppy in their last few runs) and its long period combined with a pretty direct ESE-E angle; we could be looking at Closeout City locally and be forced to relocate distances elsewhere, but I suppose you never really know how the recently-built/rearranged sandbars and standout breaks are going to handle it until go-time.

Check back late Friday or early Saturday for an update (I will post in the Surf News section if I cannot connect with Brent) and monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind reports and predictions.

NOTE: Some boards for sale are posted in the Surf News section; at least two of them (the Bonzer and the Fly) might be just the ticket for the upcoming larger surf.

 

 

Wednesday 15 Sept 2010

Report: Minimal background swell and offshore winds. Looking in the shin- to knee-high range at best.

Prediction: Small groundswell from Igor should start to arrive overnight Wed-Thursday and build through late-week and into the weekend. Actually, what we are likely to see in the next 24-36 hours is the combined result of a SE swell from a pre-frontal low and fore-runner ESE groundswell from Igor, but that is sort of semantics at this point. Unfortunately, winds are looking pretty hard sideshore from the S-SSE for Thursday, with only the possibility of an early session before they really ramp up by mid-morning.

Extended Forecast: The bulk of the Igor swell should come quickly late Thursday/early Friday and build through the weekend (peaking on Sunday) and sustaining into early next week. The thing that concerns me most about this swell is its long period combined with a pretty direct ESE-E angle; we could be looking at Closeout City locally and be forced to relocate distances elsewhere, but I suppose you never really know how the recently-built/rearranged sandbars and standout breaks are going to handle it until go-time.

As for winds/surface conditions, right now winds are looking favorable (offshore WNW-NW) on Friday and then going Northerly sideshore to SE on Saturday, but may remain light enough to keep conditions favorable. Sunday currently looks to have the potential to go/be light offshore, but we will revisit the outlook for the weekend in our next update later this week.

NOTE: Some boards for sale are posted in the Surf News section; at least two of them (the Bonzer and the Fly) might be just the ticket for the upcoming larger surf.

 

 

Monday 13 September 2010

Report: Small scale E-ENE windswell/background swell this AM with light offshore winds. Kinda on the weak and only semi-clean side, but you might be able to get some short gliding rides on a big board.

Prediction: Offshore winds are predicted to continue for the remainder of the day, but I suspect that the wind will likely shift SE as the day goes on and things heat up. Similar conditions through mid-week (small background swell with winds assuming an offshore-early/potential sideshore-later pattern).

Extended Forecast: Of course the big news is Hurricane Igor, currently moving Westward across the Atlantic and towards the Leeward Islands and expected to make a Northwestward turn soon. If so, he should enter our swell window late week, with forerunner groundswell arriving as early as Thursday and the swell lasting through the weekend and into early next week. It is a bit too early to try to nail down local wind conditions and how they will affect the surf, so check back mid/late week for a more detailed update.

NOTE: I am thinning my quiver and posted a few boards for sale in the Surf News section, so check them out; of particular interest is a 6-5 Bonzer which is begging for some groundswell action.

 

 

Friday 10 Sept 10

Report: Small background swell in the shin- to knee-high range. It is getting torn-up and struggling pretty hard against the heavy offshore winds and barely registering locally, so I would call it not worth it.

Prediction: Winds are predicted to back down as predicted. I am thinking that will not make much of a difference, but it is possible we might see a minor increase in ridability on the incoming tide (low is around 3:15PM) this afternoon/evening. If so, think "recreational longboard wave", not necessarily something to take serious. I am thinking of bringing my 5 y.o. daughter up to surf after work on her softtop, if that puts it in perspective.

Extended Forecast: A very slight increase in the ESE background groundswell is on the charts for Saturday with moderate winds from N-NNW early, coming around clockwise to light-moderate SE-SSE later in day, so it might tip conditions just enough in our favor to get wet on a big board. A new round of weather looks like it will bring rain and S-SSE winds for Sunday.

NOTE: I am thinning the quiver and posted a few boards in the Surf News section, so check 'em out.

 

 

 

Thursday 9 September 2010

Report: Had a pretty fun LB session last night off a jetty that was bumping the background swell up to thigh-to-waist high perfectly-formed peelers. Was hoping for a repeat this AM, but all we are currently seeing is tiny background swell around knee-high at best with hard offshore winds. Currently little to no sign of the small groundswell on the charts (see prediction below); I suppose if it is indeed out there it might just not have enough to it to fight past the wind to our shoreline.

Prediction: A small background ESE groundswell is on the charts for late Thursday into early Friday; if it can muster the strength to beat the wind (maybe on the incoming tide later this afternoon?), we might see a little relief in the form of a small-but-clean wave late-week, with continued moderate+ gusty WNW-NW winds.

Extended Forecast: Continued, but fading, mini background E-ESE swell conditions for the weekend. Right now winds look lighter, but from a less-favorable N-NNW angle, for Saturday, with a new round of S-SSE winds for Sunday.

NOTE: I am thinning the quiver and have posted a few boards for sale in the Surf News section.

 

 

 

Wednesday 8 September 2010

Report: Small background swell in the knee- to thigh-high range with moderate+, and occasionally gusty, offshore winds this AM. Tide is a bit high (high was at 7:40) but on its way down, so maybe as it drains you might find something on a LB or fatty fish. However, I would not wait too long as I also expect it to get a beat-down by the wind and lose size as the day goes on.

Prediction: A small background ESE groundswell is on the charts for late Thursday into early Friday, so we might see a little relief in the form of a (hopefully) waist-high, give or take, wave late-week, with continued moderate+ WNW-NW winds.

Extended Forecast: Continued, but fading, small background E-ESE swell conditions for the weekend. Right now winds look lighter, but from a less-favorable N-NNW angle, for Saturday, with a new round of S-SSE winds for Sunday.

NOTE: I am thinning the quiver and going to be posting a few boards for sale in the Surf News section shortly- a …lost Round-Nose Fish, a Big-guy shortboard, and possibly a Coil Widerboard (still on the fence about the last one). Check back later this evening or tomorrow for the info and pics.

 

 

Friday 3 Sept10

Report: What was looking like it could be a hit or glancing blow by Earl now looks like it will be a whiff and a miss. Building groundswell with light side-off winds and ridable conditions this AM have given way to harder N-NNE winds and roiling (but not as big as anticipated) surf by mid-day as Earl begins his pass by us in his norteastward journey.

Prediction: Winds will shift hard offshore and clean up the swell on the backside of Earl as he moves past our coast. Unfortunately this looks like it will happen overnight, which leaves us looking at a pretty high probability of skunkage for Saturday AM. I am holding on to a little hope, but have to acknowlege that we could get screwed by the timing of these events. Either high-tail it to Long Island or get on it early locally for your best chances of scoring this Earl swell as the source of the swell will be moving out of our window and honkin’ offshore winds will knock things down quickly.

Extended Forecast: Much smaller background-style leftover mid-period groundswell on the charts for Sunday with contined offshore winds. Minimal to flat conditions expected for the Labor Day Monday with W-WSW winds early and a potential shift to SSW-S in the afternoon as things heat up.

Check back early work-week for an update.

 

 

 

Tuesday 31 August 2010

Afternoon Report: Looks like a bit of groundswell has built up since this AM. A bit closed out with a dropping tide (high was at noon) and the winds recently switched onshore (was WNW this AM), but it is a gift horse so you might as well not look it in the mouth and get in the water if you have time.

Prediction: Building ESE groundswell through the second half of the week with variable winds; some periods of offshore winds are likely (monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date information regarding the winds) until we start to feel the effects of Earl on his trip up the coast (see more info below).

Extended Forecast: Of course, Hurricane Earl is the next “big thing” in our outlook. Currently located down by Puerto Rico, moving WNW, and predicted to make a wide turn to the N and then NE, his track is very much to-be-determined. He could roll up the coast right by us (or even over us if he hugs the Western edge of the projected track) or could find some traction and eject off Hatteras and pass a bit more offshore), but suffice to say we should see quite a bit of swell late-week as Earl will be somewhere between a high Category 2 and mid-Cat 3 as he passes us (he is currently predicted to downgrade from a 3 to 2 somewhere between Hatteras and New England).

Current Call (subject to change according to track): Forerunner groundswell generated off the outer margin of Earl may sneak through our window as early as Wednesday, with the bulk of the swell rushing in late Thursday/early Friday. Heavy onshore winds, followed by a quick snap to offshore late Friday, is currently on the models, but the timing and intensity of this transition will be VERY dependent on track. Hard offshore winds should come up on the back-side of the storm (most likely overnight Friday-Saturday) with residual groundswell (starting off ESE with additional E and ENE components coming into play) as Earl moves North of us. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date information regarding local winds and direction, as well as Earl’s current projected track, and check back late mid-week for an update.

 

 

Monday 30 Aug 2010

Report: After a weekend of so-so (as far as hurricane-generated groundswells go) surf from Danielle, we are looking at East groundswell leftovers with spread-out sets and NW-NNW winds this AM.

Prediction: The swell should wind down pretty quickly today, with winds potentially coming up from the SE as the day heats up. Minimal groundswell leftovers and variable winds for Tuesday.

Extended Forecast: Of course, Hurricane Earl is the next “big thing” in our outlook. Currently located down by Puerto Rico, moving WNW, and predicted to make a wide turn to the N and then NE, his track is very much to-be-determined. He could roll up the coast right by us (or even over us if he hugs the Western edge of the projected track) or could find some traction and eject off Hatteras and pass a bit more offshore), but suffice to say we should see quite a bit of swell late-week as Earl will be somewhere between a high Category 2 and mid-Cat 3 as he passes us (he is currently predicted to downgrade from a 3 to 2 somewhere between Hatteras and New England).

Current Call (subject to change according to track): A small forerunner groundswell generated off his outer margin may sneak through our window as early as Wednesday, with the bulk of the swell rushing in late Thursday/early Friday. Heavy onshore winds, followed by a quick snap to offshore late Friday, is currently on the models, but the timing and intensity of this transition will be VERY dependent on track. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date information regarding local winds and direction, as well as Earl’s current projected track, and check back late Tuesday or early Wednesday for an update.

 

 

 

Sunday 22 Aug 2010

Report: Washy windswell in the waist to stomach-high range and onshore winds this AM.

Prediction: Increasing SE winds may push up some more windswell as the day goes on, but expect choppy/washy conditions to persist through the day. This low should clear out overnight, giving way to offshore winds and E-ESE mid-period swell for the AM.

Extended Forecast: Another round of strong NE winds Mon night through Tuesday should push up some E-ENE windswell. Things destablize a bit for Wednesday, resulting in winds of mixed direction and intensity (monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information. Offshore winds are currently in the outlook for Thursday, with smaller E swell leftovers on the models as well. Check back mid-week for an update.

NOTE: TD6 is out there, predicted to strenghthen, and make its way towards the east coast. If the predicted track holds, we may see surf from it by the weekend. We will keep an eye on things and address this in the next update.

 

 

 

 

Friday 20 Aug 2010

Report: Small but clean ESE background swell. A little shallow and closed-out with the dropping tide, but a few bars here and there look to have enough contour to hold a ridable wave.

Prediction: The turn-around tide might bring some relief from the closeouts later this AM, but also be aware that winds are predicted to come around and up from the E-ESE this afternoon as well.

Weekend Outlook: Small ESE background swell is predicted to stick around into Saturday, with light E-ENE winds forecasted for the AM. Increasing onshore winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday could drive a little additional windswell on top of it, but I would not expect anything substantial to come of it. Potential for rain and T-storms late Sunday as well.

Extended Forecast: It looks like some stronger onshore winds and E-ENE windswell may develop for the early half of next week. Check back late weekend or early next work week for an update.

 

 

 

Wednesday 18 Aug 2010

Report: Small E background swell and light sideshore winds this AM. Not seeing much worth riding; maybe on a log or fat fish.

Prediction: Some rain and increasing onshore/sideshore winds this afternoon, so probably looking at further-degrading conditions. Unfortunately the low we were hoping for weakened and moved through a bit early, stuffing the onshore flow we had hoped would produce some windswell over the next few days…

Extended Forecast: Instead, we are looking at a small increase in the E background swell for Thursday with a mixed bag of light to moderate onshore/sideshore winds (monitor local weather for that info). We are looking at an offshore AM/warm-weather-induced sideshore windshift wind pattern for Friday, so whatever background swell sticks around should be reasonably clean for at least the AM session. Again, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information, and check back here often for updates.

 

 

 

Tuesday 17 Aug 2010

Report: Combo E background/SE windswell this AM with SW-WSW winds. Semi-clean but not well-groomed, and bottoming out with an AM low tide.

Prediction: Winds may come up SE later this AM/early afternoon. T-storm condtions likely this PM, so that would affect local winds (could turn it back offshore on the approach or backside of the storms).

Extended Forecast: Onshore E-ENE winds return for Wed-Thurs, driving a new round of E-angled windswell. Potential cleanup late week (currently looknig like Friday).

NOTE: Jetty Coquina Jam is scheduled for this Wednesday Aug 18. Check the Surf News section for more info.

 

 

Friday 13 Aug 2010

Report: E winds and some sloppy E windswell.

Prediction: Increasing E winds and building E windswell through today. Much of the same for Saturday, but winds might back down a bit. Expect conditions typical of onshore winds and swell with a matching direction (could be a slop-fest, could be somewhat ridable with semi-organized faces).

Extended Forecast: Winds are predicted to be moderate and E early, and come up from the SE later, on Sunday and continue through Monday. Monitor sources of local weather for up-to-date wind information, and check back here for an update early next week.

NOTE: Dark Fall is “re-premiering” at HOB in AC tonight. Check the Surf News section for more on this and other upcoming surf-related happenings.

 

 

 

Tuesday 10 Aug 10

Report: Smaller combo S-windswell/E groundswell leftovers and offshore winds, but the 8AM high tide is snuffing it out at most locations, but standout breaks are holding a decent wave.

Prediction: Increasing onshore winds this afternoon may cross-chop the surface conditions, but if the winds manage to hold off we might see some decent lines come through as the tide drains later this AM or early afternoon.

Extended Forecast: Continued fading swell through Tuesday AM, with light and variable winds; I would expect the 9AM high tide to thwart attempts at an AM session, but standout high-tide breaks may hold something ridable. Increasing onshore winds anywhere between the ESE and ENE, but not a whole lot of fetch associated with them, are predicted Tuesday afternoon though the end of the work-week, so anticipate onshore windswell conditions to wax and wane over the course of the next few days.

NOTE: Some upcoming events, such as the Jetty Coquina Jam, SeaPaddle NYC, and Grom Grudge Match Jr., will be posted to the Surf News section shortly; keep checking in.

 

 

04 August 2010

Report: Some small ESE swell in the knee- to waist-high range. Winds are on the light-ish side, resulting in semi-clean, weak-but-ridable waves.

Prediction: Winds between SSE and SSW are predicted to pick up as the day goes on, perhaps generating a little more S-SSW windswell on top of what we already have on-hand. Some T-storms passing through overnight Wed-Thurs might bump the windswell up a touch for Thursday AM, with SW-WSW winds to boot (FYI- localized T-storms could throw the wind directions for a loop).

Extended Forecast: Despite getting pretty sheared up, the remnants of TS Colin may still throw a little love our way. A slow build of mid-period groundswell starting Friday and peaking on Saturday is on the charts, with offshore NW-WNW winds predicted for Friday and variable (both direction and intensity) through the weekend. Best to monitor sources of local weather for up to date information regarding the winds. Check back here over the next few days for updates as details develop.

STOLEN BOARD ALERT, Point Pleasant Beach. Check the Surf News section for more info.

 

 

 

Tuesday 27 July 2010

Report: Small background waves, knee- to maybe thigh-high with a rising tide (high is around 9AM). Clean with light offshore winds.

Forecast: Winds will most likely be shifting and coming up from the S-SE later this A as the day heats up. Continued small background swell predicted through mid-week.

Extended Forecast: Sideshore winds on Wednesday from the S-SSW should build a hard-angled S windswell. Currently, a weak low is predicted to push through on Thursday, which should pull winds around to a more offshore (currently looking SW to WSW) angle as the front clears, cleaning up the windswell (not looking like a true swell event, but there (hopefully) should be something worth riding. Monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information and check back here mid-week for an update.

NOTE: Check the Surf News section for other upcoming events. Additionally, I often post short-notice reports and occasionally post prediction updates in the Surf News section (especially on weekends), so keep your eye on the blinking marquee box to the upper right.

 

 

Friday 23 July 2010

Report: Small, clean surf, light onshore winds. Not QUITE there yet (dropping tide should help), but I am sure you could grab a few on a LB or fatty fish.

Prediction: A small ESE groundswell is predicted to fill later this morning/early afternoon. The only fly in the ointment is that S-SSE winds are predicted to pick up as well.

Extended Forecast: This small groundswell is predicted to wax and wane over the weekend; combine that with localized SE windswell and predicted W-SW winds, and we have the formula for a decent weekend of small but fun surf in the making. As always, beware windshifts to the S-SSE as daytime temperatures heat up.

NOTE: EVENT REMINDER, TONIGHT: Singlefins, Boardwalks, And Story Talks: An Evening Of New Jersey Surf History Presented By Intercourse Brewing Company hits the Tuckerton Seaport’s New Jersey Surfing Museum in Tuckerton, NJ, from 6:00 to 10:00 p.m.

NOTE #2: Check the Surf News section for other upcoming events as well.

NOTE #3: I often post short-notice reports and occasionally post prediction updates in the Surf News section (especially on weekends), so keep your eye on the blinking marquee box to the upper right.

 

 

 

Tuesday 20 July 2010

Report: SE windswell in the waist to chest high range with SW winds. A bit on the washy and weak side, but could improve as the tide fills in.

Prediction: Dropping SE windswell through the day. An additional small ESE mid-period groundswell is predicted to build late AM or early afternoon as well. Beware a warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SE this afternoon.

Extended Forecast: A localized windswell + small mid-period E-ESE groundswell combination is on the models for Wednesday-Thursday with mixed winds (mostly offshore/angled offshore, but again, beware a warm-weather-induced windshift to the S-SE in the afternoons).

NOTE: I often post short-notice reports and occasionally post prediction updates in the Surf News section until Brent gets them up on the main page here, so keep your eye on the blinking marquee box to the upper right. Also, lots of surf-related going-ons in the near-future, so check out that info there as well. Finally, do not forget the used Coil shortboard I posted in the Surf News section back on June 4th; it is a great price for a great board.

 

 

 

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