Thursday 26 January 2012
Report: Not much happening out there this AM. A small background ESE is on the models, but I do not see much evidence of it at our breaks.
Prediction: Some inclement weather and SSE winds are predicted to ramp up this afternoon/evening and start to generate a new S windswell. Winds are predicted to continue overnight into tomorrow AM, which should bode well for the building of a decent S swell. When the winds shift offshore (right now looking like late AM or midday), they are predicted to come up pretty strong- first SW and eventually around WNW or even NW- so the cleanup should hopefully come quick and yield groomed conditions for the afternoon session. As always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.
Extended Forecast: Unfortunately this swell looks to have the typical characteristics of a hit-and-run, most likely resulting in an overnight knock-down/blow out by Saturday AM. Still, I would not be too surprised to see some sort of lingering leftovers with lighter (as compared to those of Friday) offshore winds Saturday AM, particularly during the early low-incoming push. Keep your fingers crossed for some sort of bonus round, because conditions will likely be minimal to flat for the latter half of the weekend into early next workweek.
Monday 23 January 2012
Report: E-ESE windswell, E-ENE winds, and a fat tide this creating for less-than-optimal conditions this morning despite the swell running in the chest- to shoulder-high range.
Predictions: Winds are predicted to come around and up more from the SE-SSE late today, adding a secondary SE windswell component but also degrading the conditions by crossing them up. Unfortunately, it looks like this low is going to linger longer than originally modeled (see previous report and prediction), pushing the offshore wind-shift to well-after daylight has faded. This means that we should see offshore W-WNW winds for Tuesday AM but likely considerably-reduced swell size (unfortunately, I do not currently see the setup for a desirable backdoor-build off the backside of the low as it pushes off). Still, I would plan to check it and have conditional plans/excuses to surf if you can as we may be entering another period of less-than-stellar swell for the next few days. Also bear in mind a big ol’ +5 ft tide at approximately 8AM may swamp-out some breaks that cannot handle that much water.
Extended Forecast: As I mentioned, I do not currently see any significant swell building for a bit. That said, I do currently see the possibility for a mid-period East background swell to sneak in late work-week. Check back mid-week for an update, and as always, monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.
Friday 20 January 2012
Report: The models say no but the waves say go… well, kinda. While there is no new/sustained swell on the models today, there appears to be a small, crisp longboard wave in the water this AM, groomed by WNW-NW winds. I would call it only shin- to thigh-high, but the good form is what is making it enticing at standout breaks.
Prediction: Trace/no swell on the models for Saturday, with N-NNW winds predicted. Onshore winds come into play on Sunday, building a new E-ESE windswell, but conditions will likely remain onshore through the entire day.
Extended Forecast: Another coastal low looks to enter the picture overnight Sunday-Monday, likely bringing hard S winds and building a new SSE windswell. Winds look to shift and rip offshore once the low moves/gets pushed off the coast, but the timing of this is questionable (could happen after dark Monday night); check back late weekend or early next work-week for an update, and monitor sources of local weather for up to date wind information.
Tuesday 17 January 2012
Report: Back on the scene after a few days away (hence no weekend update). Today we have a steep south windswell running in the thigh to waist high range with very shallow, fin-scraping conditions this morning and SW winds, grooming conditions pretty well at East-facing coastlines and a bit more side/side-offshore at the more SE-facing areas.
Prediction: As the tide fills in this morning (high is around 1:30 PM) conditions should improve quite a bit assuming more water gets on the bars before the winds start cranking from the SW-SSW (as are predicted).
Extended Forecast: As this weak low pushes offshore, the swell will likely tilt a bit more SE and the period should lengthen a bit, which gives me some hope for a little bit of a follow-up to today/if today does not quite pan out. This should all be under NW-WNW wind conditions, so those aforementioned SE-facing coastlines that are not optimal today may catch the better conditions tomorrow. Keep in mind this is not a big swell event so anticipate the size to fade quite a bit as the day goes on.
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